Bitcoin’s $150K Target Looks Unlikely As Polymarket Odds Sink To 23%

[Ben Graham]

Prediction markets and analyst desks are sending different signals about Bitcoin’s near-term path. Traders on Polymarket appear cautious, while some big-name firms keep calling for big gains in 2026.

Market Odds And Trader Caution

According to Polymarket prices, Bitcoin has just a 23% chance of reaching $150,000 before 2027. The odds are higher at lower targets: 47% for $120,000, 35% for $130,000 and 29% for $140,000.

Traders are most comfortable with $100,000, which carries about an 80% chance. That spread shows bettors are pricing risk tightly as the clock runs toward the new year.

Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, a fact that has likely cooled some enthusiasm. Reports have disclosed that gold and silver hit fresh highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, while crypto prices held mostly flat. The old four-year halving cycle that many chartists relied on is being questioned, and that doubt is being priced in.

Technical Signals

Based on the latest Bitcoin price outlook, BTC is expected to climb 3% to about $91,815 by February 1, 2026. Technical signals point to a Bearish mood, while the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, reflecting Fear. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin posted gains on 15 of those days, or 50%, with price swings averaging 2%.

Policy Shifts Could Change The Math

US President Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair soon, and many market participants are betting that interest rates will be cut afterward.

That idea has already helped send precious metals higher. At the same time, regulators in Washington are pushing crypto bills such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, which backers say could give clearer rules and, in time, more institutional interest.

Analysts Still Offer Bullish Targets

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly predicted that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026, citing stronger institutional interest and better regulatory clarity as reasons for his bullish outlook.

Analysts at JPMorgan have suggested a theoretical Bitcoin price around $170,000 in 2026, based on a model comparing Bitcoin’s behavior to gold and assuming continued capital flows into the crypto market.

Grayscale’s 2026 digital asset outlook expects Bitcoin to exceed its previous all-time high in the first half of 2026, implying a move above its record peak of around $126,000 (though not giving a specific numerical target, the implication is toward significant upward momentum).

Policymakers, traders and analysts are all weighing different risks. Market prices reflect caution today, while forecasts offer a brighter view for the months ahead. Which one proves right will depend on policy moves, investor appetite and whether new trading patterns replace the cycle many thought they could count on.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView