GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The pound started the European session on Friday by pulling back from the 1.3475 level and, at the time of writing, is trading slightly above 1.3440. Following a downward revision of the UK manufacturing PMI for December (S&P Global), the pound also declined, while remaining within the weekly range and above the 1.3400 threshold.

The manufacturing PMI data published today for the UK showed that growth momentum was weaker than expected. The final reading came in at 50.6 versus the preliminary 51.2. Despite the revision, the indicator remains above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction, as well as above the November reading of 50.2, indicating continued, albeit moderate, expansion in the sector.

Attempts by the U.S. dollar to strengthen remain limited. The short-term trend for the pound remains downward after the December peak above 1.3530; however, the currency is holding on to most of the gains accumulated in November–December, having ended 2025 with an increase of more than 7%.

Over the past year, the dollar has been significantly undermined by U.S. President Donald Trump's inconsistent trade policy, signs of weakening economic growth, and political pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts. In the medium term, exchange rate dynamics are determined by the divergence in monetary policy approaches between the U.S. and the UK.

The Bank of England cut its policy rate in December, a move that appears risky against the backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures and disagreements within the Monetary Policy Committee. This makes further policy easing unlikely. At the same time, the Federal Reserve expects at least two rate cuts in 2026, and if Jerome Powell is replaced by a more dovish chair, the probability of additional easing will increase. All else being equal, this configuration of factors may limit the potential for a recovery in the U.S. dollar in the coming months.

The reduced demand for the dollar is explained by a combination of factors: President Trump's inconsistent trade policy, signs of slowing economic growth, and political pressure on the Federal Reserve to further ease policy. In the medium term, the policy divergence between the Fed and the Bank of England remains the key driver of the pair's dynamics.

From a technical perspective, the pair has held above the 1.3440 level and above the 14-day EMA. The nearest resistance lies at 1.3480. A break above it would open the way toward the round 1.3500 level, on the path to the December high.

If the pair fails to hold above 1.3440, it may fall toward the round 1.3400 level, signaling a loss of bullish momentum. However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, the bulls remain in control.

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