A Maduro Bet, A Market Alarm: US Lawmaker Targets Trading Abuses

[Ben Graham]

US Rep. Ritchie Torres said he will introduce legislation to curb what he and other lawmakers describe as possible insider trading on prediction markets, after a single, highly timed wager on Polymarket paid off when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured.

Reports have disclosed that the bill — being called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 — would bar federally elected officials, political appointees and executive branch staff from trading on event markets when they hold material nonpublic information.

Public Integrity In Focus

According to reporting, a newly created Polymarket account placed roughly $32,500 in bets on a contract that asked whether Maduro would be out of power by January 31, 2026. That stake bought about 438,000 shares when the market price was as low as $0.07 per share late Friday.

Within about 24 hours, after action by US forces and an announcement by US President Donald Trump, the position surged—returning more than $400,000 to the account.

NEW — RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) will introduce a bill on this.

Bill will be called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026

Description, per a source:

This bill prohibits federal elected officials, political appointees, and Executive Branch employees… https://t.co/eZZ9BmAMgJ

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 3, 2026

The trade’s timing set off immediate questions. Social media users and some investors flagged the purchase as suspicious because it came hours before the public announcement.

Observers noted that prediction markets can move quickly on small flows of information, and that enforcement rules vary across platforms.

Reports note that other markets, like Kalshi, had priced similar outcomes at roughly $0.13, underlining how unexpected the outcome was to many traders.

A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73

— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026

How The Bill Would Work

Torres’s proposal would adapt principles from existing rules that limit trading by officials in traditional securities markets and extend them to online prediction exchanges.

The draft language aims to make it unlawful for covered government figures to trade on contracts tied to government actions or political events when they possess nonpublic information because of their official roles.

The measure would also task regulators with clarifying which platforms are covered and how violations would be enforced.

Market Reaction And Questions

Platform operators have long said their terms forbid trading on material nonpublic information, but critics say those rules are hard to police in real time.

Some analysts and lawmakers argue that this episode shows a gap between written policies and effective oversight. Others warn against overreach that could stifle legitimate market activity used for forecasting and research.

Investigations may look at the account’s origins and any links to people with privileged knowledge. Lawmakers, meanwhile, are pushing for clearer legal guardrails. If Congress moves quickly, new rules could reshape who may legally bet on political and national security events.

Featured image from AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView