Asian stock markets shrugged off Venezuela's impact, WTI crude sold off, Gold rallied towards resistance, and the US dollar remained below resistance

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

Risk assets resilient: Asian equities opened strongly despite heightened geopolitical risk from Venezuela, led by a sharp rally in Japan’s Nikkei, while US equity futures maintained short-term bullish momentum.

Divergent cross-asset moves: Gold surged on safe-haven demand but is now stalling near resistance, while WTI crude weakened as supply expectations improved following potential US control of Venezuelan oil output.

USD capped, FX mixed: The US dollar edged higher but remains below key resistance, with AUD/USD holding its minor uptrend as long as near-term supports stay intact.

Asian stock markets have opened on a strong footing on Monday, 5 January, for the first full trading week of 2026, ignoring the potential geopolitical tension arising from the direct inland attack on Venezuela by the US over the weekend that led to the capture and swift removal of Venezuela’s leader, Maduro, by US military forces.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped by 3% to hit a 7-week high, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index traded almost unchanged, while China’s A50 staged an intraday rally of 1.25 at the time of writing.

After the removal of Venezuela’s leader, Maduro, US President Trump has indicated that the US will “administer” Venezuela in the interim, without any definite timeline, and allow US oil and exploration companies to manage Venezuela’s oil fields, drawing parallels to a “Iraq 2.0” occupation.

Meanwhile, in today’s Asian session, gold (XAU/USD) rallied by 1.8%, the US Dollar Index inched higher by 0.28%, and WTI crude oil slipped by 0.6% over supply fears from the removal of Venezuela’s oil sanctions by the US.

Here are five intraday (hourly) technical setups on key cross-assets to watch as the trading session unfolds today in the aftermath of the US attack on Venezuelan soil.

Japan 225 bullish breakout from short-term range

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Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The minor choppy price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) seen from November 2025 to December 2025 are likely to have ended.

Today’s bullish breakout above its former minor range resistance of 51,533 from the period of 4 November 2025 to 13 November 2025 has indicated the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence for the Japan 225 CFD index (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 50,985/50,718 short-term pivotal support on the Japan 225 CFD index to maintain the bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 52,136, and 52,775/53,045 (new all-time high zone defined by Fibonacci extension cluster).

However, a break and an hourly close below 50,718 negates the bullish tone to open up scope for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support of 50,180 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages)

US Wall Street 30’s minor bullish momentum remains intact

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Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) managed to stage a minor bullish reversal last Friday, 2 January 2026, after a retest of its rising 20-day moving average.

In addition, its hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to shape a series of “higher lows” above the 50 level, which indicates potential short-term bullish momentum remains intact.

If 47,870 short-term pivotal support continues to hold, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index may extend its up move above 48,480 to retest the current all-time high area of 48,770/48,870 in the first step (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 47,870 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 47,530 (also close to the 50-day moving average).

AUD/USD slipped 0.3% but still holds above 20-day MA support

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Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the AUD/USD pulled back by -0.3% in today’s Asian session (Monday, 5 January), but it is still trading above its 20-day moving average and testing the lower boundary of its minor ascending channel from its 21 November 2025 low.

These observations suggest the minor uptrend phase remains intact as long as the 0.6660 short-term pivotal support holds on the AUD/USD for retest on the 0.6720/0.6727 intermediate range resistance in the first step.

On the flipside, a break below 0.6660 key minor support put the minor uptrend phase in jeopardy to trigger a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6630 and even 0.6660/0.6590 next (also close to the 50-day moving average).

Gold (XAU/USD) intraday rally now at resistance

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Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The minor up move seen in gold (XAU/USD) from its 31 December 2025 low of US$4,274 has reached an inflection resistance zone of US$4,403/US$4,430 (also defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor corrective decline from 26 December 2025 all-time high to 31 December 2025 low)

Elliot Wave/Fibonacci analysis suggests the recent up move from 31 December 2025 is likely a minor mean reversion rebound, which suggests there is still downside risk lingering around for gold (XAU/USD).

Watch the US$4,485 key short-term pivotal resistance on gold (XAU/USD) for a potential slide to retest the intermediate support of US$4,333/US$4,309 (today’s Asian session opening gap up and last Friday, 2 January, US session low) in the first step (see Fig. 4).

However, a clearance above US$4,485 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the current all-time high of US$4,550/4,560.

WTI crude bearish reaction at 20-day MA

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Fig. 5: West Texas Oil minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The 7% rally seen on WTI crude from the 16 December swing low area of US$55.23 has fizzled out since last Friday, 2 January 2025, and today’s Asian session’s rejection right at the 20-day moving average that acted as a near-term resistance of US$57.98 suggests the bears are still in control (see Fig. 5).

A break below US$56.80 may see a further intraday slide on WTI crude towards the next intermediate supports at US$55.75 and US$55.23.

On the other hand, a clearance above US$58.76/59.18 short-term pivotal resistance invalidates the bearish bias for an extension of the corrective rebound to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$60.00 and US$60.56.

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