XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

After weekend events, gold resumed its upward movement, receiving support from rising geopolitical tensions following the U.S. launch of a ground operation against Venezuela over the weekend. Another factor was the escalation in rhetoric by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Colombia and Mexico, which heightened concerns about destabilization in Latin America, thereby increasing investor interest in traditional safe-haven assets.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar corrected after intraday gains, having previously reached nearly a four-week high amid expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.

This prospect increases gold's appeal.

It was reported that on Saturday, the U.S. Army elite special forces unit, Delta Force, conducted an operation in Venezuela, resulting in the detention of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Meanwhile, President Trump indicated that similar measures could be taken against Colombia and Mexico as part of an expanding campaign targeting criminal networks and political instability in the region.

These developments are unfolding amid a lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, escalating tensions in Iran, and persistent instability in Gaza—factors that reinforce demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. Additional support for gold comes from dovish expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy.

The market is pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut as early as March, as well as the possibility of an additional cut before the end of the year. Furthermore, speculation that a new Federal Reserve chair aligned with Trump might favor more aggressive rate reductions is weighing on the dollar and further boosting demand for precious metals.

Key focus this week should be on the upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data releases, including Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation reports. These indicators will determine the future path of Fed monetary policy and influence the near-term dynamics of the dollar and gold.

From a technical perspective, gold faces resistance at 4440.00. Prices are trading above the 100-day SMA, and oscillators on the daily chart are positive, indicating that bulls are ready for action.

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