Copper price hits new record of $13,000 in London

Ben Graham · Segunda em 15:33

Copper touched $13,000 a ton in London for the first time, extending last year’s scorching rally fueled by mine outages and trade dislocations.

Benchmark futures on the London Metal Exchange rallied as much as 4.3% to nearly $13,020/t, before pulling back to the $12,500 level.

Copper ended last year on a high, having notched a series of records on the LME. That resulted in its best annual performance since 2009 at more than 43%, making it the best-performing industrial metal on the bourse.

Mine disruptions

In 2025, output disruptions at major mines, such as the Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, raised concerns over the world’s supply of the metal, which is used in everything from data centers to car batteries.

The same worries remain in the new year, exacerbated by a recent strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile. While the mine is dwarfed by top-tier producers in Chile such as Escondida and Collahuasi, the work stoppage shows how surging prices can exacerbate labor tensions as companies grapple to keep costs in check.

Tariff threat

At the same time, the threat of US import tariffs on copper has led traders to ramp up shipments of the metal to American shores in recent weeks, reducing supplies elsewhere. President Donald Trump’s plan to revisit the question of tariffs on primary copper this year has revived the arbitrage trade that rocked the market in 2025.

“We estimate the global refined copper market was in surplus in 2025, but metal/inventory flows were distorted by US tariffs that resulted in a material lift in US imports,” UBS Group analysts, including Daniel Major, wrote in a note Monday.

The US holds roughly half of global inventories, but only accounts for less than 10% of global demand, according to UBS. That means there is a risk of lower supplies elsewhere. The cash-to-three month spread in London remains firmly in backwardation, a pattern that points to near-term tightness.

“Overall supply shortfalls, coupled with regional dislocation caused by US tariffs, are propelling copper,” China Securities Co. analysts led by Wang Jiechao wrote in a note. “The global copper market will see a shortage of more than 100,000 tons in 2026,” they said.

(With files from Bloomberg)