Market Implications for Venezuela President Maduro's Capture – WTI Oil and Dow Jones to New Highs!

Ben Graham · Segunda em 15:58

In case you missed it, some major geopolitical news arose over the weekend.

After months of back-and-forth menaces, the US launched some proper attacks against Venezuela and captured its President, Nicolas Maduro.

Debates are high in the impact on Markets.

The overarching theme has been one of lower barriers for WTI Oil, hence higher supply, but prices have been moving (somewhat erratically) higher since.

The most positive impact would be on US producers who will be able to leverage a bounce in profitability with cheaper access to Crude Oil.

Keep an eye on the crack spread evolution (the gap between Crude Oil and refined Oil products like Gasoline or Diesel) as its growth could really launch a new golden age for US producers.

Screenshot 2026-01-05 at 10.16.51 AM — Crack Spread Chart (Refined Oil profitability) – Source: RBNenergy Keep an eye on whether it gets higher with Venezuela's events.

The primary concern is whether Venezuela’s key partners, Russia and China, will ramp up their threats or let it slide.

Any lack of real response could prompt further movement by the Trump Administration to operate in other countries, as recently suggested by President Trump.

The immediate reaction, at least, has been one of confidence.

The US Dollar has been rallying but at the same time, stocks, commodities, and metals are running higher.

2026 will be very interesting.

Keep an eye on the geopolitical headlines, particularly as a possible revolution in Iran may generate further geopolitical volatility.

In this piece, we will examine US Oil, a few individual stock names to watch in the Oil sector, and the impact on the Stock Market (Dow Jones).

Discover:

US Oil 4H Chart

Oil has been rebounding quite largely even after its Weekly open gap.

It's been trading in a very constrained range, with its 4H 50 and 200-Moving Averages acting as resistance.

But as uncertainty increases, the buying is gathering more momentum.

The long-term July downtrend is holding for now so in case of a breakout above the MA, check out the $59 level (Channel Highs).

Screenshot 2026-01-05 at 10.41.42 AM — WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 5, 2025. Source: TradingView

WTI Technical Levels

Levels to place on your WTI charts:

Resistance Levels

4H MA 200 at $58.38 (testing, breaking?)
$59 to $60 2021 Resistance and Channel Highs
Minor Resistance $62 to $63
Key September Resistance $65 to $66

Support Levels

$56.38 Market Open gap down
$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows
Yearly lows $55.00
2019 mini support $53 to $54
Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.50

Impact on Individual Energy Stock names

A real debate concerning individual names could be whether the capture was priced in or not.

A month back, we saw Exxon's Stock reaching new all-time highs, questionable move as Oil was moving in another direction – Around this time, invasion prospects and odds were going higher.

In today's Stock Market action, most individual Energy names in the S&P 500 are actually down, in what seems to be profit taking.

A few Individual Names to keep your eyes on.

Chevron, Valero and Conoco Philipps are the best performers in the energies through first hour of action.

Overall, traders and investors should look at Oil refining profitability rising again with higher competition compared to Mexican and Canadian Western Select (Heavy Sour Oil alternatives).

Names could include Marathon (MRO) and PBF Energy for example. In case you are looking for other stock names, you might be interested to look at this list.

A quick glance at the Dow Jones

Screenshot 2026-01-05 at 10.51.26 AM — Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 5, 2025. Source: TradingView

Stock traders love the taste of freedom!

The Dow Jones, dragged higher by its Industrial and Energy components is the best performing US Index and trading to New All-time Highs

Pushing to 49,100, DJIA is reaching new highs and sees no real barriers until ~49,500.

An in-depth Stock Index analysis will be coming up during the session.

Safe Trades and a Successful 2026!

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