Gold price rises to weekly high on US-Venezuela fallout

Ben Graham · Segunda em 17:17

Gold advanced nearly 3% on Monday on heightened geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Spot gold hit a one-week high of $4,455.42 per ounce, about $100 shy of its record high set late in 2025. US gold futures surged to as high as $4,480 per ounce in New York.

Demand for safe-haven assets swelled over the weekend after the US attacked Venezuela and deposed Maduro, in what was Washington’s most direct intervention in Latin America since 1989.

The episode “reinforced a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty,” said Christopher Wong, an analyst at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. However, immediate risks are limited as “developments in Venezuela point to a relatively quick closure, rather than a prolonged military conflict,” he added.

An analysis of the long-term impact of geopolitical events “shows a far more limited price impact in time on gold prices than, for instance, oil,” Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis, said in a note.

Geopolitics-fueled rally

Gold posted a 64% gain last year, driven by geopolitical flashpoints and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary easing cycle. Expectations of even lower rates, along with central bank buying and ETF flows bolstered the climb.

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“The situation around Venezuela has clearly reactivated safe-haven demand, but it comes on top of existing concerns about geopolitics, energy supply and monetary policy,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany.

Some leading banks forecast further gains in gold this year, especially with the Fed expected to deliver additional interest rate reductions and US President Donald Trump reshaping the US central bank’s leadership. Goldman Sachs Group said last month that its base case was for a rally to $4,900 an ounce, with risks to the upside.

“Another move toward new record highs would likely be triggered if geopolitical tensions broaden further or if incoming US data reinforces expectations that the Fed will have to ease more aggressively than currently priced,” Zumpfe added.

In addition to events in Venezuela, Trump also used the weekend to restate his ambitions for Greenland and suggested possible action against Colombia and Mexico over illicit drug flows.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)