Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ends: Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal

[Ben Graham]

On-chain data suggests Bitcoin miner capitulation may have ended as the Hash Ribbons indicator has printed a fresh buy signal.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Have Seen A Bullish Crossover

As highlighted by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards in a new X post, the Hash Ribbons has just given a signal for Bitcoin. The “Hash Ribbons” here refers to a metric created by Edwards that basically provides a representation of the miners’ situation.

It does so by comparing two moving averages (MAs) of the “Hashrate,” an indicator that measures the total amount of computing power that the miners have connected to the network.

When the value of this metric rises, it suggests existing miners are expanding their facilities and/or new ones are joining the blockchain. Such a trend implies these validators may be finding BTC mining to be an attractive venture.

On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests some of the miners have decided to disconnect from the network, potentially because they are no longer able to break even on mining activities.

The Hash Ribbons aims to pinpoint when one of these behaviors becomes dominant. The 30-day and 60-day MAs of the Hashrate play the role of the “ribbons” and their crossovers provide signals for shifts in miners’ condition.

The 30-day MA moving below the 60-day one is considered to signal the start of a “miner capitulation.” In this phase, miners are under pressure and BTC may arrive at a bottom. The reverse crossover implies the return of conviction among miners, which has often been followed by bullish price action.

Below is the chart for the Hash Ribbons shared by the analyst that shows the signals that Bitcoin has witnessed over the last few years.

As is visible in the graph, the 30-day MA of the Bitcoin Hashrate fell below the 60-day ribbon last year as miners reduced their computing power in response to the bearish price action in the cryptocurrency.

After a period of staying in the capitulation region, the reverse crossover has now finally occurred, meaning that the situation of the miners is improving, at least from the perspective of the Hash Ribbons.

From the chart, it’s visible that this kind of “buy signal” occurred at some key points in the last few years. The recovery from 2022 bear market in 2023, for example, took place after a bullish crossover in the Hash Ribbons. The mini-bear phase in mid-2021 also broke with a buy signal from the indicator.

It now remains to be seen whether positive price action will also follow for Bitcoin after the latest signal.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has shot up over the last few days as its price has returned back to the $94,100 level.