Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal next

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

Near-term bias turning bearish: Gold is struggling below the US$4,485–4,500 resistance zone, with price action signalling a potential short-term bearish reversal over the next 1–3 days.

Momentum and retracement warning signs: The recent rebound has reached a key Fibonacci retracement and is accompanied by bearish RSI divergence, suggesting the move is likely a countertrend bounce rather than a fresh bullish impulse.

Key levels to watch: A break below US$4,430/4,403 opens the door to deeper pullbacks toward US$4,333–4,309 and potentially US$4,267–4,243, while a clear break above US$4,500 would invalidate the bearish scenario.

Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bearish reversal

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Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 7 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$4,485/4,500 for a potential minor bearish reversal in the first step for Gold (XAU/USD).

A break below US$4,430/4,403 may expose further weakness towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,333/4,309, followed by the first medium-term support zone of US$4,267/4,243 (also the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025 low).

Key elements to support the bearish bias

• The minor up moves of 5.3% from the 31 December 2025 low of US$4,274 to today’s 7 January 2025 intraday high of US$4,500 have reached 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior corrective decline from its current all-time high printed on 26 December 2025 to 31 December 2025.
• The rally since Monday, January 5, 2025, has been accompanied by a bearish divergence condition, as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, which has reached its overbought region.
• These observations suggest that the rally from 31 December 2025 is likely to be a countertrend/mean reversion rebound rather than the start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence for Gold (XAU/USD).

Alternative trend bias (1 to days)

A clearance above US$4,485/4,500 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish reversal scenario on Gold (XAU/USD) that allows bulls to be in control again,

Above the current all-time high of US$4,550/4,560 sees the next intermediate resistance comes in at US$4,645 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel.

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