GBP/USD Forecast on January 7, 2026

[Ben Graham]

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair completed a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar on Tuesday and consolidated below the 1.3526–1.3539 level. Thus, the decline may continue toward the 1.3437–1.3470 support area. A rebound from this zone or a consolidation above 1.3526–1.3539 would favor the British pound and a resumption of growth within the bullish trend toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3595.

The wave structure remains bullish. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the news flow in the United States also leaves much to be desired. At the start of the new year, bulls feel confident and are ignoring negative factors. A break of the bullish trend would occur below the 1.3403 level.

The news background on Tuesday was virtually absent, and the pound was trading more in line with the euro rather than on its own initiative. Today is a different story. The United States will release the second of three key blocks of economic statistics this week. The ADP report will show how private-sector employment in the U.S. changed in December. The JOLTS report will show how the number of job openings changed in November. And the ISM business activity index needs no further explanation. Let me remind you that the market continues to closely monitor U.S. labor market data, but the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate are considered more important. These reports represent the third important test for the dollar this week—on Friday. But Friday is still some way off; today's data will be enough to keep traders alert throughout the day. In my view, the pound's outlook remains positive, as there are still few signs of a recovery in the U.S. labor market.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 1.3369–1.3435 support zone. A rebound from this area worked in favor of the pound and a resumption of growth toward the next 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 1.3118–1.3140 support area. The ascending trend channel indicates the continuation of the bullish trend. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,572, while the number of short positions decreased by 5,727. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 63,000 versus 105,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the pound appears to have exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency may enjoy periodic demand in the market—but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at present no one can be sure that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more dovish one during the year.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Construction PMI (09:30 UTC)
• United States – ADP Employment Change (13:15 UTC)
• United States – ISM Services PMI (15:00 UTC)
• United States – JOLTS Job Openings (15:00 UTC)

On January 7, the economic calendar contains four events, three of which are important. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Wednesday is expected in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3526–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3470. These trades can be kept open today. Buying can be considered today either on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 support zone on the hourly chart or after a close above the 1.3526–1.3539 level, with a target at 1.3595.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com