EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading near the round level of 1.1700, maintaining an overall bearish trend. New inflation data from the eurozone confirmed that price pressures remain moderate, leading to sideways movement of the pair near three-week lows as markets await the release of key U.S. employment data.

Data published by Eurostat on Wednesday showed that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the eurozone fell to 2.0% year-on-year in December, in line with forecasts and down from 2.1% in November. Similarly, core HICP slowed to 2.3% year-on-year from 2.4%, outperforming expectations of 2.4%.

Nevertheless, the market remains calm despite rising geopolitical risks. U.S. intervention in Venezuela's domestic affairs has not led to significant political changes in the country, while President Donald Trump announced a $2 billion agreement on the export of Venezuelan oil to the United States.

Today, for better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of U.S. job openings data (JOLTS) and the ADP employment report. These indicators will set the tone for the key U.S. labor market report (NFP, Non-Farm Payrolls) due on Friday. The data will help clarify the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

From a technical perspective, prices have shown resilience below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The round level of 1.1700 now acts as resistance, followed by 1.1725. It is also worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has moved into negative territory, indicating that bulls are losing control of the situation. However, conclusions should not be rushed, as daily oscillators remain mixed.

The table below shows the percentage changes of the euro against major currencies today. The strongest movement of the euro was observed against the British pound.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com