USD gains value

[Ben Graham]

The US dollar strengthened slightly after data showed hiring in American companies grew at a moderate pace in December, signaling a slowdown in job growth at the end of 2025. On Wednesday, ADP Research reported that private-sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, following a 28,000 decline in November. Economists had forecast a 50,000 rise.

Although the numbers fell short of expectations, they nonetheless pointed to a degree of resilience in the labour market. The slowdown in hiring, however, could prompt the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the first quarter of this year. Investors are watching closely for upcoming data from the US Labor Department, which will help shape the Fed's policy path. Many market participants believe slower job growth would encourage a more accommodative approach to interest rates.

The ADP report adds to evidence of a gradual cooling in the labour market seen last year. Hiring has been sluggish, and unemployment has risen, weighing on economists' forecasts and dampening households' perceptions of job prospects.

The December gain was driven primarily by education and health services, as well as leisure and hospitality. Payrolls contracted in professional services and manufacturing. Small businesses resumed hiring after several months of cuts.

"Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back," ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said.

Weakness in the labour market is among the Federal Reserve's primary concerns. Policymakers reduced interest rates three times at the end of 2025 and must now balance that easing with still-elevated inflation as they consider further cuts in the new year.

According to a technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair, buyers should consider reclaiming the 1.1700 level. That would open the way to test 1.1720. From there, a move to 1.1740 would be possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players could be difficult. The extended target is 1.1765. On a decline, look for meaningful buying interest near 1.1665. If no buyers appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1640 or to open long positions from 1.1616.

As for the GBP/USD pair, buyers should target the nearest resistance at 1.3460. That would allow a move toward 1.3488, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is around 1.3514. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3435. A break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3414, with scope to extend to 1.3387.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com