EUR/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

On Thursday, the euro was virtually unchanged against the Swiss franc as markets digested fresh economic data from Switzerland and the eurozone. At the time of writing, EUR/CHF is hovering around 0.9310, halting a two-day rally.

According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the Consumer Price Index remained flat in December, posting zero month-on-month growth after a 0.2% decline in November and beating analysts' forecasts of -0.1%. On a yearly basis, inflation stood at 0.1%, as expected, up from zero the previous month. These figures reinforced confidence that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months, maintaining a cautious stance and reducing the risk of a return to negative rates. At its December 11 monetary policy meeting, the SNB kept the key interest rate at 0%. The minutes released the same day noted no urgent need for adjustments. The bank's statement said the Governing Board sees no grounds for changing monetary policy at present, with neither tightening nor additional easing justified at this stage.

In the eurozone, the European Commission's business climate indicator improved to -0.56 in December from -0.66, pointing to moderate stabilization in corporate conditions. Consumer confidence rose to -13.1 from -14.6, although the overall economic sentiment indicator edged slightly lower to 96.7 from 97.1. Producer price inflation accelerated to 0.5% in November from 0.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, the PPI fell by 1.7%, extending its downward trend for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, eurozone unemployment declined to 6.3% in November from 6.4%. Earlier on Thursday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said current interest rates are appropriate, noting that inflation has reached its target, although uncertainty remains high.

On Friday, Switzerland will release its final unemployment data. In the eurozone, markets are awaiting releases on retail sales, as well as Germany's industrial production and trade balance.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index has moved into positive territory, raising hopes that bulls will overcome the 20- and 100-day SMAs, after which it would be easier for them to control the market. However, bulls would gain full control only after breaking above the 200-day SMA, which lies nearby.

It is also worth noting that both the 200- and 100-day SMAs are sloping downward, indicating that the broader trend has not yet changed direction.

On the other hand, prices have found support at the 14-day EMA. Failure to hold this level would likely see the pair retreat toward the psychological level of 0.9300.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com