Holy Grail Gold Fundamentalist – Q4’s Perfect Profit Storm

Igor Pereira · January 10

The market is about to get a real shock. While retail looks at 5-minute graphics, the data we just analyzed on the 4th Quarter of 2025 (Q4'25) show a historical disconnect between price and value.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

The numbers are clear: The gold miners have just completed, fundamentally, the best quarter of their entire history. But be careful: there is an armed technical trap for those who buy in euphoria now.

Below, the complete autopsy of what to expect from the swing season that begins in mid-February.

The balance sheets that will be published soon will not only be "good"; they will be epics.

The Gold Price Directed: In Q4, gold not only rose; it orbited. The average price was of stunning $4.150 per ounce . This represents a leap of +56% for the previous year (YoY). For context, the previous record was "only" $3,459 in Q3.
The Magic of the Operational Margin: Here's the secret Wall Street hasn't given you yet. While gold rose 56%, mining costs (AISC) rose much slower.
- Estimated Costs (AISC): We plan that the costs remain between $1,450 and $1,550/oz (a rise of only ~4.9% YoY).
- The Result: That implies a Net Unitary Profit of approximately $2.550 per ounce.
The verdict: We are talking about a growth of +111% in unit profits compared to Q4'24. Mining companies are literally printing money faster than central banks.

Profit per ounce is great, but volume is what scale the business.

Seasonality Favor: Historically, Q4 is the strongest quarter for production (average growth of +6.1% over Q3 in the last decade for the GDX Top 25).
Stability: Unlike Q1 (which suffers from winter in the northern hemisphere, freezing leaching operations), Q4 operated in full steam. We expect stable or increasing volume, which will multiply these record profits directly on the last line of the balance sheet (Bottom Line).

When those audited balance sheets are released between mid-February and March:

P/L collapse: The valuations of the shares will drop, not because the price fell, but because the denominator (Lucro) exploded.
The Flame: This will make the sector look ridiculously cheap on the screens of institutional investors, attracting the generalist capital that has ignored gold so far.

TECHNICAL Alert: The Reckoning

This is where I separate amateur professionals. Despite the perfect foundations, Buying now is tactical suicide.

The technical graph of the GDX is screaming danger:

Extreme Stretch: The GDX went off 173% in a little over a year. He's negotiating almost. 50% above of its 200-day moving average (200dma). This is a historical standard deviation that never It holds on for a long time.
The Risk of Correction: The market needs to breathe. A healthy correction in Gold (say, -10%) may result in a leveraged drop of -20% to -30% in mining plants (GDX). In a worse scenario, we could see a retreat of up to 40% before the next high leg.
The Trigger: The present euphoria is unsustainable. The technical "Reckoning" will come before the fundamental validation.

The base scenario: We are facing a generational opportunity, but timing is everything. The foundations guarantee that the destination is the moon, but the technique says that the rocket needs to refuel on the ground first.

Igor Pereira's Game Plan:

SNIPER PATIENCE: Do not pursue current prices. Let the herd buy the technical top.
THE HUNTING AREA: Prepare to purchase aggressively during the technical "Acquittance of Accounts" we predicted for the beginning of 2026. When GDX backs and tests supports (while real profits remain record), it will be the opportunity to buy the decade.
THE TARGET: Place yourself before the February/March swing season. When the reports come out confirming profits of +111%, we want to be already positioned at lower prices.

Stay focused. The market will try to shake you before I pay you.

Game Turned: The Three "Alpha" Miners

GDX is good, but there are 3 specific miners (mid-tiers) that have costs below average and production increasing, which means that their profits will rise 150% or more, surpassing the index.

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