Gold and silver prices set new records on Fed uncertainty

Ben Graham · 5 horas atrás

Gold and silver prices both set new records on Monday as investors piled into safe-haven metals amid renewed concerns over the US Federal Reserve and its independence.

Spot gold rose as much as 2.6% to a new all-time peak of 4,625.34 per ounce, marking the first time that the yellow metal has surpassed $4,600 mark. Silver also surged 7.2% to set a record of $85.73 an ounce.

Uncertainties surrounding the Fed amid US President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the bank and its leadership were amongst the major factors driving precious metals to successive records last year. Weakening the institution’s ability to rein in inflation would weigh on the dollar and Treasuries, but bolster the appeal of gold as a store of value.

Also driving precious metals higher are a confluence of tailwinds, including falling US rates and rising geopolitical tensions. More than a dozen money managers said they’ve opted not to take too much money off the table in gold, holding conviction in its long-term appeal, according to Bloomberg.

“Gold is near its highs of the day, and its rally reflects a convergence of political, monetary and geopolitical risks that are reinforcing demand for haven assets. A move toward $5,000 soon seems highly plausible given that backdrop,” macro strategist Nour Al Ali wrote.

Gold price could hit $5,000 in H1 2026, says HSBC

Escalated attack on Fed

Gold ended 2025 with a gain of 65%, its best annual performance since 1979. Silver performed even better at 140%. That rally looks set to persist this year as the Trump administration escalates its attack on the Fed, with chair Jerome Powell now under the threat of criminal indictment after he was served with a grand jury subpoena by the Justice Department.

“We see increased interference with the Fed as a key bullish wildcard for the precious metals in 2026,” said Julius Baer Group’s Carsten Menke. The silver market, smaller in size, is more sensitive to moves in rates and the dollar, so it’s “likely to react more strongly to such concerns,” he added.

The possible Fed indictment “is a reminder of how many uncertainties markets are juggling — geopolitics, the growth/rates debate, and now a fresh headline-driven reminder of an institutional risk premium,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.

Silver deficit

Silver, while benefiting from the same drivers as gold, is also lifted by ongoing supply tightness, as fears of a US tariff on the metal drained warehouse inventories, as seen during the London silver squeeze in October.

“We see the deficit in the silver market continuing throughout 2026, primarily on higher investment demand,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note on Monday. Industrial consumption has also tightened the physical market to an unprecedented degree, it said.

A speculative frenzy in China has helped turbocharge a metals rally in recent weeks, with traders and deep-pocketed funds piling into commodities. The nation’s only pure-play silver fund even had to turn away new investors, worried about a high-risk spike in premiums over the value of its underlying assets.