US CPI Releases As Expected (+0.3% vs 0.3% exp) – Market Reactions

[Ben Graham]

Markets have just received the report for the highly anticipated CPI Report for December, which came in exactly as expected – The report is a relief and despite the high m/m gain, should raise cut expectations throughout the middle of the year.

The month-over-month Headline release came in at 0.3% vs. 0.3% expectations.

This brings the y/y total to 2.7%, unchanged from last month.

For Core CPI, the m/m is at 0.2% vs 0.3% estimates – the year-over-year is a bit lower with 2.6% vs 2.7% expected.

The difference with the headline comes with more volatile energy prices throughout the month which could also be a major factor for Inflation in 2026.

You can get access to the full report right here.

It is the first live report, considered timely and with supposedly fewer BLS assumptions since September.

The 1.5-month-long US Government shutdown had impaired previous releases.

After last month's bizarre miss, traders and investors were looking to learn more on how the inflation picture is really unfolding – Doubts could remain regarding today's release.

For those who did not know, the Trump Administration fired the Head of the BLS, a move that adds further uncertainty and distrust in US data and assets.

Let's discover a few reactions for the US Dollar, Dow Jones (CFD & Futures), EUR/USD, and Gold.

US Dollar (Dollar Index)

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Dollar Index 15M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView

Pre-Open Dow Jones (CFD)

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Pre-Open Dow Jones (CFD) – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView

The open should be positive for stocks after the report.

Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart

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Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView

EUR/USD 15M Chart

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EUR/USD 15M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView

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