XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Gold remains under pressure on Tuesday, trading near the psychological $4,600 level after reaching a new all-time high in the previous session. Despite the short-term correction, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for the precious metal. The recovery of the US dollar following yesterday's decline is acting as a key constraint on further upside in the XAU/USD pair. However, the potential for sustained dollar strength is limited by growing concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

An investigation initiated by the administration of Donald Trump into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has increased uncertainty surrounding the Fed's independence and has become one of the drivers supporting gold as a safe-haven asset. In a public statement, Powell described the situation as unprecedented, noting that he views the investigation as a response to the central bank's refusal to cut interest rates despite pressure from the White House.

Geopolitical tensions remain an additional source of support. Recent statements by Trump regarding the possibility of military action against Iran in response to the violent suppression of protests, along with the threat of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from countries cooperating with Tehran, have boosted demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, gold reached new record highs earlier this week.

Nevertheless, the metal's short-term price dynamics will depend on the release of US consumer inflation data later today. The consensus forecast expects the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, while the annual rate is seen holding steady at 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is also expected to remain close to 2.7% year-on-year.

Any significant deviation from these expectations could influence market forecasts regarding the Federal Reserve's policy decision at its January 28 meeting. At the same time, market participants continue to price in two Fed rate cuts in 2026, which limits demand for the US dollar and supports interest in gold.

From a fundamental perspective, declining yields on US assets and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to create a favorable environment for the precious metal. Any corrective pullbacks are likely to be viewed by investors as buying opportunities, while the broader trend remains bullish.

From a technical standpoint, strong support is seen near the corrective pullback area around 4,560, while resistance is located at the psychological 4,600 level. Oscillators remain positive but are approaching overbought territory, suggesting continued bullish bias accompanied by consolidation or a potential pullback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com