Silver market deficit to continue throughout 2026, says Fitch’s BMI

[Ben Graham]

Although gold outperformed most commodities in 2025, it underperformed fellow precious metals silver and platinum, which gained 143% and 137%, respectively.  

Throughout 2025, industrial and retail demand for silver pushed prices towards $80/oz for the first time in history. Inflows into silver ETFs have surged, while demand from solar panels and EVs has tightened the physical market to an unprecedented degree, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in its latest market report 

BMI sees the deficit in the silver market continuing throughout 2026, primarily on higher investment demand. 

“As non-yielding assets, silver and platinum have both benefited from interest rate cuts; but they have also indirectly benefited from the elevated gold price, which has made both metals cheap relative to gold in investment portfolios, jewellery and various industrial applications,” BMI said.  

Analysts maintained that even so, prices remain highly volatile, with positioning from non- commercial speculators dictating price movements and demand from central banks, a key driver of gold prices, playing no meaningful role.  

Since January 1, Beijing has restricted the export of physical silver to the global market, piling additional pressure on inventories in London and Zurich and temporarily pushing lease rates for silver back above 8% on a one-month equivalent basis, BMI said.  

Mexico, the world’s largest silver producer, is also unlikely to deliver any significant increase in silver volumes this year due to declining ore grades and a partial cessation of operations at Fresnillo’s San Julián mine, BMI analysts noted.  

By contrast, BMI does not believe the currently elevated platinum price is justified by fundamentals.  

Platinum futures now trade above $2,000/oz on the New York Mercantile Exchange following the EU’s decision to postpone its 2035 ban on sales of ICE vehicles, which require platinum-intensive catalytic converters.  

The postponement, BMI noted, announced on December 16, sparked a 31% rally in platinum prices to an all-time-high of $2,471/oz on December 26.  

“The sell-off on December 29 saw prices plunge almost 15%, the largest daily decline since August 2001,” BMI said.  

“While prices have recovered over the past week, we still expect only a moderate increase in industrial demand for platinum in 2026, with higher recycling rates partially offsetting lower production from platinum mines in South Africa.”  

Read the full report here.