Prediction Markets Like Kalshi Hit $702M in a Day as Crypto Regulators Circle

Ben Graham · 5 horas atrás

Prediction markets posted a record $702M in trading volume in a single day, even as US regulators continue to scrutinize the emerging sector. Most of that activity flowed through Kalshi, while crypto-native rival Polymarket also saw heavy action. This surge comes amid a broader push to bring prediction markets into the financial mainstream.

For regular users, this tells a clear story. More people now bet on real-world outcomes using crypto-backed platforms, and money follows attention. But growth at this pace always attracts regulators, who are watching closely.

(SOURCE: Dune.com/GateResearch)

Regulatory scrutiny around the prediction market sector hasn’t stopped trading volumes from soaring, while Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have also enjoyed a strong start to 2026, with BTC USD pushing above $95,000 overnight, a daily gain of +3.5%.

The combined crypto market also reached an annual high of $3.32 trillion, up +3.6% overnight, and has gained over $500Bn since the beginning of the year.

What Are Prediction Markets and Why is Everyone Using Them?

A prediction market lets you trade on outcomes. Think of it like a stock market for events. You can buy “yes,” “no,” or multiple-choice answer shares on questions such as election results or sports outcomes.

If you’re right, your shares pay out. If you’re wrong, you lose the bet and get nothing. Prices move in real time based on what the crowd believes. If heavy betting comes in on one side of an event, the odds will increase on the other side.

This format feels simple. That’s the hook. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are market leaders, packaging complex probabilities into a single number you can trade and allowing users to place bets using various cryptocurrencies.

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Why Kalshi and Crypto Prediction Markets Volumes Are Exploding Right Now

Real estate prediction markets just got a real oracle.

Polymarket launched Home Value markets, powered exclusively by Parcl data. No Zillow vibes, no CT narratives. Resolution is mechanical: Parcl price per sqft × fixed home size per city. Clean inputs, clean outcomes.

Top 3… pic.twitter.com/NPvcZCN1SD

— Mak (@brelgino) January 5, 2026

On Monday alone, traders pushed $701.7 million through prediction markets. Kalshi handled about two-thirds of that total, roughly $466 million, according to Dune Analytics.

That beat the prior day’s record. In the past two days, two consecutive all-time highs have been reached, underscoring growing demand for prediction markets.

Currently, Kalshi holds a 48.4% market share; Opinion is second at 26.9%, Polymarket third at 20.3%, and a dozen or so smaller platforms account for the remaining 4.4%.

The timing matters. Prediction markets gained traction in 2025 after US regulators provided clearer guidance. Polymarket even re-entered the US after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange and has since expanded into sports betting and real estate predictions.

Regulators Are Paying Attention and That Cuts Both Ways

A Tennessee federal judge agreed to temporarily block state gaming regulators from taking enforcement action against Kalshi for its sports event contracts. https://t.co/wkVSqh6Ymy

— Law360 (@Law360) January 14, 2026

This explosive growth also brings risk. A recent high-profile Polymarket trade tied to Venezuelan politics returned over $400,000 on a $30,000 bet. Lawmakers raised concerns about insider trading, although there is no evidence that either the trader or Polymarket engaged in wrongdoing.

Several US states are now pushing back. New York, Nevada, and New Jersey tried to restrict certain markets. Entire countries are also targeting the sector, with Ukraine outright blocking Polymarket, citing gambling.

1) Ukraine has officially blocked Polymarket, according to the National Commission for Electronic Communications.

The platform was blocked due to the lack of a required license, as the regulator classifies its activity as gambling. pic.twitter.com/ZuiBWBsJ5H

— Alex (@Oleksan23437762) January 12, 2026

At the same time, some courts are siding with this emerging technology after a federal judge in Tennessee paused enforcement against Kalshi this week. The rules still vary by location, and there will likely be lots of challenges ahead for the major platforms as they attempt to break into the mainstream.

For new users dipping their toes into prediction markets for the first time, follow these simple rules. First, use platforms that comply with local regulations.

As for betting, never trade based on rumors or insider tips. That line gets crossed fast, and prediction markets now sit at the intersection of finance, gambling law, and crypto. Expect more users, more money, and more legal pressure in the months ahead.

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