EUR/USD Analysis on January 14, 2026

[Ben Graham]

The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD remains unchanged. There is no talk of canceling the upward section of the trend that began in January of last year, but the wave structure since July 1, 2025, has taken on an extended, corrective appearance. In my view, the pair has completed the construction of corrective wave 4, which has an unusual internal structure. Within this wave, we have observed exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of this wave.

In my opinion, the construction of the upward segment of the trend is not yet complete, and its targets are scattered up to the 25 level. In the coming weeks, the continuation of the upward wave sequence can be expected, which may take the form of a five-wave structure. However, there is no certainty that an impulsive section of the trend is currently forming, so the entire upward wave sequence could finish as a three-wave structure. In that case, a new downward section may already have begun, which would also be corrective.

EUR/USD rose by approximately 10 basis points ahead of the U.S. session, with the total daily range about 10 points. In my view, the market itself provides an answer to the question of which events truly matter to it. Many analysts currently publish entire lists of various events, news, and economic data. But what use are these if the daily price range is only 20–25 points? The market is not reacting to events or reports—it's as clear as day. Therefore, it is waiting for something. But what could it be waiting for?

I cannot answer that question. Most likely, the market is waiting for the right moment to begin constructing a new trend segment. When that moment arrives, only major players will respond, and they are unlikely to act immediately. Thus, although the economic calendar is not empty, and there are numerous unscheduled events, news, and announcements, almost none of them impact EUR/USD.

One could talk for hours about the Fed potentially losing its independence in 2026, Trump attacking Greenland and annexing it from Denmark, or Trump carrying out military operations in Iran, Mexico, Colombia, or even Cuba. But what effect do these events have on market sentiment? Let's look at the charts for the answer. Today, by the way, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue another verdict regarding Trump's tariffs. My guess is that it won't.

Overall Conclusions

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to construct an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term weakness of the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend as high as the 25th level. The current upward wave sequence could be completed, so in the near term, a pullback is possible. The trend segment starting on November 5 may still take a five-wave form, but for now, it is a corrective wave in any case.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is not entirely standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 of wave 3. However, this is normal. I remind readers that it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than adhere rigidly to every wave. Currently, the upward structure leaves no doubt.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com