Gold Led the Way, Until Now: History Says Bitcoin USD is Next

Ben Graham · 11 horas atrás

BTC reportedly trails gold and silver after their fresh record highs, and analysts see a familiar pattern forming. Bitcoin USD is hovering near $95,000, up more than +3% on the day, but is still trading -24% below its October 2025 all-time high.

On the other side,gold surged above $4,600 and silver pushed past $90, with the precious metals now trading in price discovery following fresh all-time highs for both. This is creating a visible gap between hard assets and digital currency, and that gap matters because, during past macro stress cycles, often moved later but faster.

Gold’s rally reflects growing distrust in government debt and central banks, a story that retail investors feel through inflation and weaker purchasing power. When that fear spreads, investors chase assets with limited supply. While gold is dominating headlines right now, Bitcoin sits in that same bracket with a fixed supply of 21 million tokens.

Why Is Bitcoin USD Lagging Gold Right Now?

Gold usually moves first because it is a longstanding commodity with centuries of history, and its chart spans 50+ years; large institutions have long treated it like a fire escape. When confidence cracks, they run to what they know. Bitcoin comes next once risk managers relax and seek greater upside.

Bitcoin has historically followed gold rallies by several months, often with larger percentage gains. Think of gold as the early warning siren. Bitcoin is the late responder with a turbo engine.

Historically, when gold enters a bull market, Bitcoin has often either stagnated or declined. The two assets rarely move in unison, though there are occasional instances when both rise or fall together.

During the significant rallies of both gold and Bitcoin from early 2019 through 2020, gold initially led the way. Bitcoin began to follow in the fourth quarter of 2020, launching into its own bull run while gold took a back seat.

This pattern reappeared in 2025, as gold buying accelerated amid geopolitical stress and central bank demand. Bitcoin also moved, but not at the same pace.

(SOURCE: Newhedge.io)

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Institutional Money Explains the Catch-Up Trade

Here’s the part beginners often miss. Since the US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, funds such as BlackRock and ARK have bought more Bitcoin than the network mints each day. That is like a store selling out faster than new stock arrives, and can lead to a supply shock.

So why didn’t the price explode already? During Q4 2025, long-term holders sold heavily into growing ETF demand. According to a note published in November 2026 by JPMorgan analysts, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team now estimate that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold by tens of thousands of dollars on a volatility-adjusted basis, and they gave a 2026 Bitcoin USD price forecast of $170,000.

Once sellers dry up, prices tend to jump quickly, as happened early in 2026 when sellers appeared exhausted and macroeconomic conditions improved, giving BTC a free run back to $100K and beyond.

Gold just went through that phase, and Bitcoin is now looking close to repeating its price action if $100K can be reclaimed and flipped to support, which won’t be easy, as it now acts as a strong resistance level on both a technical and psychological standpoint.

What Does a $170K Bitcoin Target Really Mean?

JUST IN: JPMorgan says Bitcoin could reach $170,000 over the next 6 to 12 months. pic.twitter.com/pvJIJpfD5s

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) November 6, 2025

With analysts such as JPMorgan openly discussing $170,000+ Bitcoin USD price targets, if the gold-to-Bitcoin rotation holds, it is worth noting that the move won’t be linear. Any move of that magnitude will come with volatility, pullbacks, and stress along the way.

Options traders are already positioned around the $100,000 and $125,000 levels. When the price approaches those zones, market makers often buy Bitcoin to hedge. That buying can push the price harder and faster.

For everyday investors, this explains why Bitcoin often appears quiet before it surges. Right now, attention is still mostly on gold due to its all-time highs, which makes headlines easier to produce.

Once BTC approaches its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, chatter will likely increase and could fuel an explosive move into price discovery.

Risks Beginners Should Respect

This setup breaks if macro fear fades fast or if ETF inflows slow. BTC still trades more violently than gold. A -20% drop in Bitcoin’s USD price can occur in days, while a gold price drop of more than a few percentage points in a week is considered significant.

That means sizing matters, and a dollar-cost averaging approach is the safest route. Never invest money you need for rent, food, or peace of mind. Bitcoin is a long-term play that rewards patience, not panic.

If you want more context on how metals and crypto connect, see our coverage on gold and silver records and why traders ask if Bitcoin is next.

Nobody knows how much steam Gold has left in the tank after being in ‘up-only’ mode for the past two years. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been in a heavy consolidation zone for months now, and as macro conditions continue to improve, a sharp move to the upside could be on the cards in the near future.

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