Metals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook

Ben Graham · 1 hora atrás

Silver, Gold correct from their All-Time Highs
Despite an ongoing rebound, some warnings signs are arising
High timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper)

A confluence of headwinds may be forming for the metals complex. While fundamentals remain structurally bullish, technical signals are increasingly pointing toward a potential slowdown.

Looking back from late 2024 to today, metals have ridden a perfect storm of catalysts that remain very much in play:

Dedollarization & Diversification: The Trump Administration's aggressive start to its second term—characterized by tariffs, isolationist "US-First" policies, and threats to retract from NATO—has forced global central banks to rapidly re-wire their balance sheets. This has driven massive capital flows into Gold and European assets as nations diversify away from the dollar.

Currency Debasement – Persistent global deficits, which continue to widen with no sign of abating, are fueling fears of fiat devaluation.
Unconditional Peace is a regime of the past. With regional conflicts heating up (Iran, Venezuela) and global powers vying for a new World Order, the geopolitical risk premium is now a permanent fixture in pricing.
Structural Supply Deficits: Demand is relentless. AI Data Centers, the energy transition, and expanded military needs are devouring supply, while rising tariffs and restrictive policies further choke global trade flows.

Screenshot 2026-01-15 at 11.54.06 AM — Metals performance since Mid-2024 – Source: TradingView

But technical factors could slow the ongoing progress.

The Long Metals trade has become crowded.

Banks, hedge funds, and even people not interested in Markets or the matter are issuing ever-higher year-end price targets—a classic sign of euphoria.

Ecstasy in any asset class can precede a brutal comedown, especially when positioning is one-sided; a minor pullback can quickly trigger cascading stop-loss liquidations.

Exchanges are also stepping in to cool the speculation. CME Group, for instance, has just shifted to percentage-based margin requirements (effective Jan 13), a move specifically designed to increase the cost of leverage as prices rise. This aims to restrict speculative excess.

Finally, metals were propped higher by global interest rate cuts. With economic activity remaining resilient and inflation pressures still high (particularly in the US), this supporting factor may now extinguish.

metals positioning 120126 — Current Positioning in Commodities – Courtesy of StoneX.Com

I strongly invite you to check out this very interesting Metals positioning report.

Even if the trend stalls or corrects, the global landscape is fundamentally different than it was just a few years ago.

Do not expect a return to 2021-2022 prices anytime soon—but be aware that in a parabolic market, brutal corrections are common.

In that aspect, let's dive right into a high-timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) to spot if the trend is really weakening and where things could head in that event.

Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels

Gold Weekly 1501 — Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold has recently broken its December record and keeps rising to new highs even after today's 1.30% max correction – Bulls remain in control of the action.

The warning for the yellow metal comes from the fact that it is forming a major RSI divergence on the Weekly timeframe.

As a reminder, divergences don't always translate to major corrections. But they do signal that buying momentum is exhausting which could prompt either a slowdown or even a retracement.

Bull Case

This signal also comes right around the $4,650 161.8% projection from 2022, cycle lows (yellow line). Reactions there will be closely tracked.
Breaking above this level leaves two targets: $4,800 which coincides with its Channel Upper Bound and after that, the $5,000 psychological level. Gold reacts well to them.

Bear Case

In the event of a retracement, the 20-Week Moving Average ($4,100) could be an interesting setup for aggressive buyers looking to join the trend.
- Overall, evolving in a large upward channel, pullback entries would also make sense at $4,000 – Lower bound of the Main Channel – So look between $4,000 to $4,100.
Any break below will see major reactions at the $3,200 to $3,600 Major Support

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

Session Highs and All-Time Highs $4,642
Key Fibonacci Projection $4,650 to $4,666
Potential Resistance at Channel highs $4,800
$5,000 Major Psychological Resistance

Support Levels:

Preceding ATH Pivot $4,350 to $4,400 – Bullish above, Bearish below
Pivotal Support and Channel lows $3,880 to $4,050
$3,200 to $3,500 Major Support
$2,600 to $2,800 November 2024 Support
$1,800 to $2,000 2022 to 2024 Range Support

Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels

Silver Weekly 1501 — Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Weekly chart for Silver marks how insane the ongoing run is.

With the ongoing rise, since August, the metal is up 150%.

Even if this doesn't look too big for a Cryptocurrency, such commodity price explosions are rare and usually consequential.

Predicting tops in an ever-exploding rally is a very dangerous thing to do and can be costly.

However, Institutional buying interest is stalling while deliveries are seeing issues amid major supply imbalances.

The trend is so strong that the 7% pullback from this morning has now completely warped away. But, this is where things could become dangerous.

Aggressive pullbacks shows a sensitive market – And with the huge Bearish divergences forming on both the Weekly and Daily timeframes, any major break could lead to a catastrophic fall.

Keep a close eye on the $82 to $85 Range – Below this, the rally can get exposed.

Falling below the $70 to $75 Major Pivot however opens the door for a huge correction.

Pullback levels could be between $55 to $63 for one case (retest of October highs)
Breaching below points to $39 to $45, retest of the 2011 All-Time High record.

These technical warnings don't mean that Silver can't go to $100 and beyond, but provides levels of attention for traders.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

$86.23 Session and All-Time Highs
Potential Mini-Resistance 1 $87 to $89
Potential Mini-Resistance and Psychological Level 2 $90 to $92

Support Levels:

Daily Pivot $83 to $85
Weekly Major Pivot $70 to $75 Above Bullish, Bearish below
December 29 Lows $70
$55 to $63 October highs and 50-Day MA
Pivotal Support $48 to $50
$39 to $45, retest of the 2011 All-Time High record

Copper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels

copper weekly 2 1501 — Copper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Copper has slowly broken out but did so consistently after a huge correction in the end of July.

Now rising to some new all-time highs, it would not be surprising to see Copper pursuing higher levels – Particularly as the commodity is very much needed for electrical and industrial processes at all levels.

And this comes particularly important as China's activity seems to be tilting higher again (and it is highly correlated with Copper prices).

But on the technical aspects, some resistances are arising.

XCU is evolving within a major Monthly channel since 2022 and is coming across its higher bound as we speak. Today is showing some slight rejection from there.
The Weekly RSI is showing some form of exhaustion. A bear divergence hasn't fully formed yet but could be in formation.
Remaining above the Major Pivot points to higher chances of a breakout, the reverse in bears break below.

In the event of a correction, look at reactions to the $5.40 to $5.50 Support Zone, and at the 50-Week MA ($4.90) in aggressive correction scenarios.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

$6.08 Current All-Time Highs
Potential Resistance 1 $6.40 to $.650
Potential Resistance 2 $6.90 to $7.00

Support Levels:

Imminent Pivot $5.70 to $5.90 – Bullish above, Bearish Below
Minor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40
Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00 (50-Week MA)
Monthly channel lows $4.40 to $4.50
2025 Support Lows at $4.00

In conclusion, as always, Markets and flows decide whether the trend is over.

The real caution to take is knowing that there are high risks (which can still offer high rewards) in trading extreme trends that traders and investors should to take in consideration

However, in the event that metals still rally, interesting plays could well occur in different, less traded commodities.

For example, other industrial metals such as Uranium, Cobalt, or even Aluminum may come into play.

Platinum and Palladium also have a interesting cases but have already rallied quite largely.

Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves!

Safe Trades!

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