Trading Signals for XAU/USD for January 16-19, 2026: sell below $4,615 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

[Ben Graham]

Gold is trading around 4,595 within a downtrend channel formed on the H4 chart since January 9. In the coming hours, we expect gold to reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around 4,550.

If the price drops towards the key support level, we could expect a technical rebound, which could then lead to an upward movement, and gold could reach the 6/8 Murray level located at 4,687.

If gold breaks decisively through the downtrend channel and consolidates below 4,540, we could expect a continuation of the bearish movement, and gold could reach the 5/8 Murray level around 4,531, finally reaching the 4/8 Murray level at 4,375.

In the chart, we can see that gold has not yet covered the gap it left around 4,515. It is likely that after a sharp break and a fall below 4,550, the downward movement could accelerate and cover this gap.

On the contrary, if gold manages to stay above 4,615, the outlook could be bullish, and we expect it to reach the 6/8 Murray at 4,687 and even reach the top of the uptrend channel around the psychological level of 4,700.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below the 21 SMA around 4,615 with a target at 4,531. The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, which supports our bearish strategy.

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