XAG/USD. Price analysis. Forecast. Expectations of restrictive US monetary policy put pressure on silver

[Ben Graham]

The precious metal is under pressure from market conditions more favorable to risk assets.

Silver's decline is driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump announced the abandonment of military plans amid guarantees of an end to executions and killings. These comments help to calm concerns about regional escalation, prompting investors to reorient toward riskier assets at the expense of precious metals.

Market sentiment improved after Trump's remarks about keeping Jerome Powell as Fed chair, which dispels doubts about the central bank's independence — a factor that previously fueled interest in safe-haven assets. In addition, a pause in new tariffs on key goods eases trade frictions.

Silver also suffers from expectations of continued Fed hawkishness regarding high interest rates. Persistent employment data support the thesis that high rates may be maintained in the coming months, making non-yielding assets like silver less competitive against yield-bearing bonds.

The current correction is linked to profit-taking and a short-term shift in sentiment; markets still react to geopolitics.

From a technical point of view, prices are above all moving averages. Although oscillators are positive, they are in the overbought zone, which suggests a correction.

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