Solana At Risk Of Breakdown After Key Rejection – Is $100 Next?

[Ben Graham]

A year after reaching its all-time high (ATH), Solana (SOL) is trading 54.3% below its $293 2025 milestone, attempting to hold a crucial zone as support. Some analysts warned that the altcoin could risk a deeper correction if the price fails to recover the recently lost ground.

Solana Breaks Below Key Support

On Sunday, Solana recorded an 8% pullback and hit a two-week low of $130. Since losing the $200 phycological barrier in late October, the cryptocurrency has struggled to hold bullish momentum, hovering between the $115-$145 levels over the past three months.

The start-of-the-year rally saw SOL break out of its multi-month downtrend, reclaim the upper zone of its local range, and briefly breach above the key $145 resistance last week. However, Sunday’s market pullback has sent Solana back below key areas.

Amid this performance, market observer BitGuru affirmed in an X analysis that the cryptocurrency “just swept liquidity into a strong demand zone after a clean structure breakdown.”

He explained that the price is attempting to rebound from its local support area, which could trigger a “sharp relief move toward previous highs” if the price can hold the current levels.

Meanwhile, analyst Man of Bitcoin noted that the altcoin’s price broke below its two-week ascending trendline, which had been supporting its 17% surge from its yearly opening. Moreover, it also dropped below the $136 mark, where the price had consistently bounced after the recent breakout.

The market observer pointed out that Solana’s short-term support sits between the $129-$136 area, adding that a breach and sustained breakdown from this area would spell trouble for the cryptocurrency.

According to the chart, if selling pressure persists and Solana fails to reclaim the recently lost ground, the price could see a scenario where it retraces deeper and potentially falls up to 25% to challenge the $100 area.

Analysts Warn Of Head And Shoulder Pattern

Other market watchers highlighted a macro pattern on Solana’s chart, suggesting that a breakdown to new lows could be coming. Notably, the altcoin displays a two-year Head and Shoulders formation in the weekly timeframe.

According to the chart, this bearish pattern has been forming since 2024, with the left shoulder developing during the Q1-Q2 2024 rally and the neckline sitting around the $120 area.

Meanwhile, the pattern’s head formed during its late 2024 and early 2025 bullish run, which led to its ATH of $293 a year ago. Lastly, the right shoulder developed after the Q3 2025 rally and Q4 correction.

Based on this performance, trader Slashology affirmed that Solana is “really looking bad here,” warning that investors should “prepare for the worst” as the price trades near the pattern’s neckline.

He forecasted that a breakdown from this key level could lead to a 35%-40% “bloodbath” toward the $75-$80 levels. On the contrary, market observer Crypto Curb suggested a different outcome could be possible.

In an X post, he compared SOL’s recent performance to the S&P 500 (SPX) price action between 2009 and 2011. Per the post, SPX displayed the same pattern as Solana, but ultimately invalidated the pattern after bouncing from the neckline and breaking above the right shoulder’s peak, eventually reaching new highs.

To the analyst, the altcoin could display a similar performance if it rebounds from the current levels and starts to climb higher.

As of this writing, Solana is trading at $134, a 5.6% decline in the daily timeframe.