US dollar doomed to failure

[Ben Graham]

Don't start a fight that you can't win. Donald Trump is confident in his victory over Europe and in acquiring Greenland, while his treasury secretary urges calm. Scott Bessent said allies' reaction resembles the same hysteria as on Liberation Day. People should just pull themselves together and see how events unfold. The hint of the "sell America" scheme seen in April has pushed EUR/USD to a three?week peak.

It may seem that strong European macro data fueled the currency's acceleration. The ZEW German investor?sentiment index rose to its highest level since mid?2021, and the current?conditions index also beat forecasts.

In fact, those surveys were conducted before Donald Trump's unexpected announcement of 10% tariffs. They reflected Germany's economic resilience despite earlier import duties.

The EUR/USD rally is the result of several factors combining: the revival of the "sell America" trade — with stocks and the dollar falling — and Treasury yields rising to the point that Scott Bessent had to reassure investors that the Europeans are unlikely to dump those bonds. There are hopes that a tariff?drained eurozone will demand (and receive) new fiscal stimulus.

Finally, fears about the Fed losing its independence. On January 21, hearings will be held in the case concerning Lisa Cook. There is a fairly high chance the White House could succeed in removing her from her post as an FOMC governor. If that happens, a precedent will be set. Donald Trump could exert political pressure on remaining Committee members and replace them at will. The central bank would become the president's puppet, and Trump's well?known desire to push the federal funds rate down to 1% would loom large.

How could the US dollar respond? Strangely enough, the Supreme Court overturned the tariffs. Recent research from Kiel University shows that 96% of tariff revenues come out of American consumers' pockets. If tariffs are a tax on the domestic consumer, then their removal is effectively a fiscal stimulus. A faster US economy would keep the Fed from cutting rates — unless Trump pulls off his hat trick of reshaping the FOMC.

Thus, the fate of EUR/USD is shifting from the executive branch to the judiciary. Much will depend on rulings in cases on the legality of the US tariffs and on Lisa Cook's potential dismissal.

Technically, the daily EUR/USD chart shows a sharp surge. Long positions opened on a rebound from support at 1.1615 or on a breakout above resistance at 1.1645 make sense to hold and to add to on pullbacks. Targets are 1.1760, 1.1775 and 1.1800.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com