XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Gold continues to rise, breaking above the round $4,700 level and setting a new all-time high.

The main driver is the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict, which continues to sustain geopolitical tensions, while also offsetting the decline in civil unrest in Iran that had reduced the likelihood of U.S. military intervention. U.S. President Donald Trump has backed away from his earlier threats of military action against Iran following the harsh suppression of protests in Tehran.

Additional pressure on markets—and support for gold prices—comes from U.S. threats to impose trade tariffs, which have revived the "Sell America" trade and are weighing on the U.S. dollar. In this context, despite a reduced likelihood of aggressive action by the Federal Reserve, investors remain cautious. Traders have scaled back expectations for more aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2026 after Trump expressed support for keeping Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council. This suggests that someone else will replace outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The overall backdrop favors further gains in gold, as market participants seek safe-haven assets, especially amid concerns about a potential trade war between the United States and the European Union due to ongoing diplomatic tensions over Greenland.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose additional 10% tariffs from February 1 on imports from eight European countries to deter their participation in a deal to acquire Greenland. France responded by signaling the possibility of new economic countermeasures, increasing the risk of a trade war between the U.S. and the EU.

For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Thursday, which is the Federal Reserve's key inflation indicator. Also in focus is the final Q3 GDP report, which will provide additional clues about the direction of monetary policy and could influence movements in the yellow metal.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, supporting the bulls, but they are in overbought territory, signaling a possible near-term correction or consolidation. However, as all moving averages continue to point higher and the MACD histogram is also rising, there are currently no signs of a price reversal.

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