WTI. Price analysis. Forecast. U.S. oil stock data may influence the short?term direction

[Ben Graham]

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading around $60.40 at the time of writing, up 1.70% on the day and continuing the recovery that began at the start of the week. Oil prices are receiving support as the most acute geopolitical concerns ease, leaving room for other supportive factors.

In recent days, tensions around Iran have abated after denials of reports about a US strike, reducing the likelihood of US military action that could disrupt exports from a major OPEC producer.

Although Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reported thousands of deaths in recent protests, the oil market is primarily focusing on the reduced risk of a sudden supply shortage, which contributes to stabilisation and fuels tactical buying of WTI.

Investors' attention is gradually shifting to political and trade news: US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from a number of European countries, including Denmark, Germany, and the UK, from February 1 if Washington refuses to sell Greenland. That rhetoric revives fears of a trade confrontation between the United States and the European Union, although the oil market is, for now, favouring near-term price drivers.

According to Rystad Energy analyst Janiva Shah, the decline in Iran-related risks has allowed market participants to switch focus to broader macro threats, notably the potential depth of US-EU trade frictions that could undermine demand in the medium term. Nevertheless, this did not prevent WTI from catching up.

For better trading opportunities, pay attention to the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) crude-stocks report, scheduled for release at the end of the North American session.

From a technical perspective, prices have broken the round $60.00 level, where the 100?day SMA runs, and are heading toward the next round level at $61.00. Daily-chart oscillators are positive, supporting the bulls.

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