EUR/USD. Price analysis. Forecast. EUR/USD pair declines after a two-day rally

[Ben Graham]

On Wednesday, the euro is showing weakness, retreating from the January high after a two-day rally, with quote movements reflecting shifts in the US political landscape and their impact on the dollar and bond yields. Statements by US President Donald Trump about urgent talks on Greenland briefly revived the dollar. However, subsequent comments by Trump that excessive pressure to annex the territory was unacceptable, followed by Denmark's refusal to enter into any transfer discussions, reversed that move: US bond yields fell in unison with the dollar, allowing the euro to recover after the initial pullback.

The fundamental backdrop in Europe was supported by a more stable environment. Sentiment indicators in Germany helped strengthen the view that growth risks in the eurozone are diminishing. Despite ongoing instability in the macroeconomic outlook, positive dynamics in confidence indices softened bearish pressure on the single currency, even amid geopolitical events. This helped the single currency consolidate rather than completely lose the positions reached this week.

As we move into Thursday, the focus shifts to key macroeconomic releases that could offset the news risks. In the eurozone, the published ECB meeting outcomes will shed light on the stance regarding inflation expectations and the future trajectory of rates.

In the US, updated GDP data, inflation indicators, and fresh initial jobless claims will set the tone for interest-rate expectations. Any divergences between US macroeconomic dynamics and ECB statements could materially affect the short-term direction of the EUR/USD pair.

Earlier this week, the EUR/USD pair posted strong gains, rising roughly 1.16% before pulling back about 0.2% on Wednesday. The midweek correction appears to be corrective.

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair has halted its pullback ahead of the 20-day and 100-day SMAs, which are close together and serve as the pair's nearest supports. If prices do not hold these levels, the decline could accelerate toward 1.1630 and then to the round level of 1.1600. Resistance is now the round level of 1.1700; overcoming it would send the pair toward the January high around 1.1770. However, because oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, the pair has not yet settled on a direction.

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