Trump opposes Powell remaining on Fed Board

[Ben Graham]

While Greenland has slipped down the agenda, US President Donald Trump has returned to his campaign to undermine the Federal Reserve, saying that Jerome Powell would not enjoy life on the Fed's Board of Governors if he remained there after his term as chair expires.

Trump said they would see how it played out and, when asked about the prospect of Powell remaining a Fed governor until 2028, warned that if that occurred, Powell's life would likely not be very happy.

The remark should be seen in the context of Mr. Trump's ongoing efforts to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. The president has repeatedly criticized Powell for what he describes as overly tight policy that restrains economic growth. Mr. Trump argues that lower rates spur investment, create jobs, and strengthen the United States' position in the global economy. Experts are divided on the wisdom of exerting such pressure on the central bank. Many argue that central?bank independence is essential to ensure financial stability and to prevent runaway inflation. Political interference in monetary policy can produce unpredictable outcomes and undermine confidence in the national currency.

Recall that immediately after the new year, the administration stepped up its campaign against the current Fed chair by issuing subpoenas that hinted at a possible criminal probe related to the renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters. Powell's strong public pushback — and his portrayal of the investigation as an attempt at political pressure — has fueled speculation that he might remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends in May. If that happens, Powell will likely retain significant influence over policy decisions within the Fed, which is unacceptable to the sitting president.

The situation is complicated by the absence of a unified view within the Fed's Board on future monetary policy. Divisions among governors could produce compromise outcomes that satisfy neither the government nor the principles of central?bank autonomy. That said, the system of checks and balances embedded in US governance provides some mitigation. The Fed is not fully independent. It remains accountable to Congress, which can influence its work through legislation. Markets also respond to political risk, which can prompt policymakers to seek compromises.

Currency markets have long grown accustomed to Mr. Trump's comments, so dollar buyers largely ignored the president's latest remarks.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should aim to reclaim the 1.1710 level. Only that would open the way to test 1.1740. From there, a move to 1.1765 is possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players would be difficult. The extended target is the high at 1.1785. On a decline, I expect meaningful buying interest only around 1.1670. If buyers do not appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1640 or to open long positions from 1.1610.

As for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3435. Only that will allow them to target 1.3465, above which a breakout will be difficult. The extended target is the area around 1.3490. If the pair falls, bears will try to seize control at 1.3405. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3380, with scope to extend to 1.3360.

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