Goldman lifts year-end gold price forecast to $5,400

[Ben Graham]

Goldman Sachs has lifted its end-of-year forecast for gold to $5,400 per ounce to reflect the yellow metal’s growing appeal among private-sector investors.

In a note published Wednesday, the bank’s analysts reiterated the confluence of factors, including strong purchases from central banks, that have driven gold prices up more than 40% last year.

This year, the bank sees private investors competing with institutions for gold as they look to diversify their portfolios, a trend they say accelerated last year.

“We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don’t liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast,” the analysts wrote.

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Meanwhile, central banks are expected to keep accumulating gold in 2026, led by those in emerging markets looking to diversify their reserve holdings, they noted, estimating average purchases of 60 tonnes for the year.

Goldman’s revision follows bullion’s red-hot start to 2026, gaining 11% since the year’s start. This week, the metal crossed several key price levels ($4,700 and $4,800), and is now approaching $4,900 an ounce, which is the bank’s previous end-of-year target.

Despite the 10% higher price forecast, the bank also warned of potential downside risks, namely a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global monetary policy.

On Thursday, spot gold rose by 1% to around $4,885 per ounce, just inches short of its all-time high of $4,887.19 set the day before.