AUD/USD explodes above August 2024 highs – Australian Dollar Outlook

Ben Graham · 1 hora atrás

The Australian Dollar has grabbed FX traders' attentions for a while now, as data for the Island Continent has consistently beaten expectations.

Rate cuts for the Royal Bank of Australia have been tough to program since they began reducing their main policy rate, the Cash Rate, in February 2025.

Stubbornly strong economic data, ever-stronger jobs market, and high inflation haven't provided the Central Bank many reasons to cut rates. As a matter of fact, they have only cut three times, from 4.35% to the current 3.60%.

aud inflatiomn 2201 — Australian Inflation Rate since January 2025 – Source: TradingEconomics, RBA

What is catching traders' attention is the actual repricing of RBA hikes – the current year-end rate is expected to be back above 4%.

The Australian jobs report, published yesterday, showed a surprising beat (+65.2K vs 30K estimates), which took the Unemployment Rate to 4.1%, levels unseen since a full year prior.

Aussies are facing high inflation as high demand and an ever-hotter economy keep workers and spenders afloat.

Rate exps rba 2201 — Interest Rate-Based Expectations of a 25 bps hike at the Feb 3 RBA Meeting – Source: ASX.com

Supported by Chinese stimulus, strong internal growth, and extreme demand for metals, which they are a significant producer of, are among the factors boosting the Australian Dollar at the top of yearly FX currency movement.

Particularly as risk appetite stays tight (AUD is a risk-on currency) and Australia is far from Western geopolitical trouble, the currency can't stop attracting further inflows.

Adding to this a renewed hawkish stance, while other Central Banks aim for rate cuts, and you get a perfect cocktail for the Aussie.

Now, we'll take a look at an AUD/USD multi-timeframe chart analysis to see where the current rally could head.

AUD/USD Multi-Timeframe Chart Analysis

Daily Chart

audusd daily 2201 — AUD/USD Daily Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Aussie is running higher since December 2025 and its upward performance coordinated a break above its 2021 Long-term downtrend.

Now forming a gigantic bullish Daily candle, there won't be much to hold the bullish movement until the 0.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 resistance.

The Daily action is dominated by the bulls and despite overbought RSI conditions, this doesn't look like a trend to fade – At least for now.

For long-term traders, keep a close eye on communications from the RBA as a February 3 Hike could get closer ~ At least that's what Rate Futures are pricing.

4H Chart and Trading Levels

audusd 4h 2201 — AUD/USD 4H Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Having sweeped above its Pivot Zone (0.6750), the action remains dominated by the bulls.

Levels of interest for AUD/USD Trading

Resistance levels

Daily Channel highs 0.6885
0.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 resistance
0.69420 September 2024 highs
Dec 2021 Lows 0.70 Major Resistance
2023 Highs and 0.71 Resistance

Support levels

October 2024 Major Pivot 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)
0.67540 Session lows
September FOMC Highs Support 0.6680 to 0.6710
0.66 to 0.6630 December Support
June 2025 Support 0.63 to 0.64

1H Chart

1h audusd 2201 — AUD/USD 1H Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView

AUD/USD is now moving to some new highs at 0.68450 and starting to show some form of slowing.

The 1H RSI is now turning lower as a session peak could have been reached and traders take profits.

A retest of the 20-Hour Moving Average at 0.68140 could be reached in late-session trading – Aggressive rebounding from here hints at further bull-side imbalance (chase to higher levels)
Correcting all the way back to ~0.6800 holds decent odds and could offer decent pullback entry points for late-trend buyers.
Closing below the 0.6770 50-Hour MA could lead to further downwards mean-reversion

Overall, look for a pullback and watch reactions when the trading gets 150 pips to the 0.69 level (around 0.68850).

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