EUR/USD. Price Analysis. Forecast. The EUR/USD Pair Confidently Gains Ground

[Ben Graham]

The EUR/USD pair confidently gained ground towards the end of the North American session on Friday, driven by rumors of possible currency interventions to support the Japanese yen, which sent the US dollar plunging by more than 0.70% on the DXY index.

This occurred against a backdrop of speculation that Japanese authorities were preparing for active market actions, despite moderately positive economic releases from the U.S.

The Bloomberg headline "Yen Soars Most Since August on Intervention Speculation" reflected the end-of-session mood: traders noted the "exchange rate check" by the New York Federal Reserve with major banks—a move seen as a prelude to potential intervention assistance. As a result, the DXY dollar index continued its decline.

The University of Michigan survey revealed improved consumer sentiment in the U.S. (the index jumped to 56.4, exceeding forecasts of 54 points), although households continue to feel pressure on purchasing power due to high prices and a weak labor market. Inflation expectations fell: year-on-year expectations decreased to 4.0% from 4.2%, while five-year expectations dropped to 3.3% from 3.4%. The composite S&P Global PMI rose to 52.8 from 52.7, but the company's chief economist, Chris Williamson, warned of risks of disappointment in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak new order inflows.

In the Eurozone, the preliminary HCOB Flash PMI signaled a mixed outcome: the composite and services indices fell short of expectations, while the manufacturing PMI showed a modest recovery. Early German data surprised positively: the services PMI entered the growth zone, and the manufacturing PMI improved, although it remained below the 50 mark.

In the week of January 26, the focus in Europe will shift to Germany's business climate and the GfK consumer market, as well as to GDP figures for the Eurozone, Germany, Spain, and France, and to speeches from ECB representatives Nagel, Lagarde, Elderson, and Schnabel. In the U.S., key releases will include durable goods orders, the ADP employment report, the FOMC decision, and Jerome Powell's press conference.

From a technical perspective, on Friday, the pair broke through the nearest resistance levels, heading towards the round level of 1.1900. The round level of 1.1800 may now serve as primary support. The nearest resistance the pair will encounter is at 1.1850.

Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is upward; however, the relative strength index is close to overbought territory, warning of a potential correction or consolidation. The weekly dynamics of the euro against major currencies are reflected in the table below: the euro showed its greatest strength against the US dollar.

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