XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Gold continues to strengthen for the sixth consecutive day, setting new all-time highs on Monday and holding onto gains at the start of the European session. XAU/USD quotes have approached the $5,111 per ounce level—a key threshold above which bulls need confirmation before opening new positions.

The metal is receiving support amid persistent geopolitical and trade risks that are boosting demand for safe-haven assets. A weaker dollar, expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve, and steady purchases by central banks—from China to Brazil—are pushing prices to new records. The People's Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak for the fourteenth consecutive month, while central banks in emerging economies, including Poland, India, and Brazil, continued to build reserves. Rising interest in exchange-traded funds is also reinforcing the uptrend: global investment in gold ETFs increased by 25% in 2025, and total holdings rose to 4,025 tons.

Political uncertainty in the United States is adding further momentum. President Donald Trump's pledges to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and growing tensions with NATO have driven the dollar to its lowest levels since September 2025, once again reviving the "Sell America" strategy. Recent friction between the U.S. and NATO over Greenland, the lack of progress in talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi, and the threat of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods have further strengthened interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Against this backdrop, gold remains the primary beneficiary of growing distrust toward risk assets and the U.S. dollar.

This week, investors' main focus shifts to the FOMC meeting, which begins on Tuesday. Markets are awaiting signals regarding the future interest-rate path that could set the direction of the dollar and determine the metal's short-term dynamics. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be crucial in assessing the outlook for monetary policy.

Meanwhile, U.S. durable goods orders data, due later today during the North American session, may introduce short-term adjustments to XAU/USD price action, although the broader trend remains firmly bullish.

From a technical perspective, the record price level of $5,111 requires confirmation for further upside. Oscillators on the daily chart are in overbought territory, indicating the need for a corrective pullback at the current stage.

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