Dollar Is in Disgrace

[Ben Graham]

The purchase of Greenland can be canceled. Canceling investor distrust in Donald Trump's policies is much more difficult. The transition from "Sell America" trading to TACO usually triggers purchases of everything produced in the United States. This time, only stocks and bonds have risen. The US dollar has fallen into a wave of massive sell-offs, and rumors of coordinated currency interventions by Washington and Tokyo have only amplified this wave.

Trump could be cutting the branch he's sitting on. European governments and investors hold US securities worth over $10 trillion. If a mass sell-off begins, this tsunami will spare no one. Yes, the US president has threatened retribution, but we are talking about individuals. What can he do to them?

Dynamics and structure of US Treasury bond holders

The process of diversification has begun. Bank of America signals capital outflows from US stock-oriented ETFs and inflows into Europe and Japan. If in the second half of 2025 the flow of money into the United States became a tailwind for the US dollar, in 2026, it risks becoming a headwind.

The White House will not object to this. Trump insists on weakening the greenback in hopes of boosting the competitiveness of American manufacturers. However, the administration adheres to a strong-dollar policy, which has investors scratching their heads about how this can be reconciled. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the dollar's price has nothing to do with strong dollar policy.

In this regard, rumors of coordinated currency intervention by the US and Japan to break the "bulls" in USD/JPY gave traders a new reason to sell the greenback. It immediately brought to mind 1985, when, due to the agreement in the Plaza Accord, the USD index fell by more than 40% over two years.

Dynamics of business confidence in Germany

The White House's intentions are clear, and the uncertainty around its policy-driven money outflows from the United States creates ideal conditions for the continued rally in EUR/USD. Even though German business confidence reports from the IFO disappointed. The report noted a gradual improvement in sentiment in the manufacturing sector and a downturn in the services sector. The German economy is entering the new year with slight momentum.

Against this backdrop, a potential acceleration in US GDP to 5.4% in the fourth quarter, according to a leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed, should have sent the main currency pair to the bottom. Unfortunately, the financial markets are not ruled by the economy. Investors' attention is focused on politics.

Technically, there was an upward gap at the opening on the daily chart of EUR/USD. To close it, the "bears" need to push the quotes of the main currency pair below 1.1835. If they succeed, a selling opportunity will arise. If not, one should consider buying euros against the US dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com