XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, Tuesday, gold is maintaining a bullish bias for the seventh consecutive day, remaining near its all-time high. Sustained interest in safe-haven assets is supported by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and rising geopolitical risks, as well as active purchases by central banks in many countries and increased retail demand. An additional driver is expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement two more interest rate cuts in 2026, which is favorable for the precious metal. However, today's moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar may partially limit gold's upside despite the prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants.

Ahead of the important Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be released on Wednesday, XAU/USD bulls prefer to take a wait-and-see approach. Investors will need to focus on new signals regarding the Fed's future monetary policy actions, which could set a new direction for the U.S. dollar and, accordingly, generate another impulse for price movements in the precious metal. Nevertheless, the favorable fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains upward.

The political factor is also increasing uncertainty: on Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated his intention to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it concludes a trade deal with China. This statement followed an earlier voiced—and subsequently withdrawn—threat to impose tariffs against Greenland, adding another element of risk to the markets. At the same time, elevated geopolitical tensions persist due to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, supporting steady demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Russia insists on including full control over Donbas in any potential settlement package, while Ukraine categorically rejects such conditions. U.S.-mediated peace talks held in Abu Dhabi ended on Saturday without any agreements, continuing to fuel geopolitical risks.

Combined with the Federal Reserve's predominantly dovish rhetoric and a weak U.S. dollar, this configuration has been pushing the yellow metal higher for the seventh day in a row. Domestic political turmoil within the Trump administration has also negatively affected perceptions of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system.

The market is pricing in a high probability that the Fed will cut borrowing costs twice during the current year, which already sent the U.S. dollar index to its lowest levels in the past four months on Monday.

Demand from banks in various countries remains steady: in December, the People's Bank of China extended its gold reserve accumulation program, bringing the cycle of continuous purchases to fourteen consecutive months. Active buyers in late 2025 and early 2026 also included the National Bank of Poland, the Reserve Bank of India, and the Central Bank of Brazil. Investment interest in gold through exchange-traded funds increased by 25% in 2025, resulting in a rise in total holdings from 3,224.2 to 4,025.4 tons. The total value of assets under management in gold ETFs reached USD 558.9 billion, confirming strong demand for the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, prices are close to resistance at the historical high. Support is provided by the round level of 5,000. Oscillators are positive but in overbought territory, which confirms consolidation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com