Copper rally boosts 2026 earnings outlook for miners: report

[Ben Graham]

Rising spot metal prices are setting up one of the strongest earnings years in recent memory for diversified miners, with Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO, LON: RIO) and Glencore (LON: GLEN) leading on upside potential, according to a report by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Spot prices imply 18%–21% upside to one-year forward consensus Ebitda across major diversified miners if current levels hold, marking the largest earnings upside since early 2025. Bloomberg Intelligence says Rio Tinto and Glencore screen best, with roughly 20%–21% upside implied.

“Major miners’ consensus Ebitda upgrades should accelerate, led by Rio Tinto and Glencore,” said Alon Olsha, senior industry analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, adding that stronger earnings revisions could support more scrip-funded M&A but also raise execution risk, particularly for Rio.

Quality matters

The composition of earnings growth matters as much as its size, with investors likely to place a higher value on upside driven by copper and precious metals than by iron ore, where consensus still assumes softer pricing.

For Glencore, strong metallurgical coal and copper prices account for about two-thirds of its spot-implied Ebitda upside, while gold and silver add more than 4% despite not being core earnings drivers.

Rio Tinto has seen particularly strong earnings momentum, with consensus forecasts lifting its 2026 Ebitda by 18% over the past six months, well ahead of peers, while spot prices still imply a further 21% upside. That strengthens Rio’s relative position but raises the bar for any large, scrip-funded acquisition as earnings upgrades increasingly reflect self-help and copper exposure.

By contrast, Glencore’s 2026 Ebitda has risen just 5% over the same period, suggesting greater scope for positive revisions if spot prices persist.

From Dr. to King

Copper’s growing dominance is reshaping the sector’s earnings mix, transforming the former “Dr. Copper” into what Bloomberg Intelligence now calls the king of commodities. Copper is set to account for more than 35% of diversified miners’ Ebitda in 2026, up about 14% from eight years ago, driven largely by higher prices and portfolio simplification rather than volume growth.

Rio Tinto stands out on production, having lifted copper output by 54% since 2019 with the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi, compared with an 11% increase at BHP (ASX: BHP, LON: BHP). The race to secure copper-heavy pipelines has intensified, pushing miners toward organic growth and M&A before assets are fully de-risked and rerated.

Anglo American’s (LON: AAL) transaction with Teck has accelerated its shift toward copper, with pro-forma earnings set to exceed 70% from the metal, followed by BHP at nearly 50% and Glencore at about 35%. Rio’s copper exposure has risen through sustained investment but still trails peers at roughly 26%, with iron ore dominating at 47%.

Bloomberg Intelligence expects diversified miners’ Ebitda to rise across the board in 2026, led by Glencore and Anglo at 24–28% growth.

Copper remains the key lever, with prices seen rising 25% versus 2025 under Bloomberg Intelligence’s scenario, or about 16% on consensus, while Glencore’s marketing division adds upside if volatility stays high.

Higher prices also bring cost risks, particularly labour, but for miners with precious metals by-products, stronger gold and silver prices should more than offset those pressures.

Road ahead

Execution will define the year as miners push major projects forward. Glencore must deliver cleaner operating performance while advancing Coroccohuayco and the Alumbrera restart. Anglo faces a critical phase completing its Teck merger and simplifying its portfolio. BHP needs to steady Jansen, clarify its Australian copper strategy and deliver the Vicuna technical study in the first quarter. Rio Tinto will focus on lithium integration, advancing in-flight projects and concluding its minerals segment strategic review, while Vale (NYSE: VALE) continues work on its plan to double copper output by 2030.

Macro trends favour base metals over bulk commodities, with resilient demand from electrification, AI and defence spending, alongside supply constraints and expected interest rate cuts. Iron ore faces a tougher outlook as supply growth accelerates and Chinese steel exports encounter rising global trade barriers.