Analysts Say Dogecoin Consolidation Is About To End – Parabolic Run Or Crash Ahead?

[Ben Graham]

As the market bounces from the recent lows, Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting to turn a crucial area back into support. Some analysts have highlighted that the cryptocurrency could be repeating its past performances, which could lead to a massive move in the coming months.

Dogecoin Repeats Its Parabolic Run Pattern

Dogecoin, the largest memecoin by market capitalization, has been trading in the $0.119-$0.151 range over the past month, reaching a one-month high of $0.156 during the early January rally.

DOGE retested the range lows over the weekend, holding the key $0.119-$0.120 area as support before bouncing 5% toward the current levels. Now, the cryptocurrency is attempting to reclaim the $0.1250 area to continue its recovery rally.

Amid this performance, some market observers affirmed that the memecoin could be near the end of a macro consolidation. Analyst Bitcoinsensus noted that Dogecoin has followed a similar pattern to the upside during previous cycles.

The chart shows that after retracing from the previous highs, the cryptocurrency has recorded a long consolidation, followed by a “parabolic run to fresh new highs, when market conditions allow it.”

As the analysis noted, previous breakouts from DOGE’s long-term accumulation zones have led to 60x and 215x gains, which could signal that a bigger rally could be brewing if history repeats.

Similarly, Trader Tardigrade highlighted that Dogecoin’s current performance in the weekly timeframe mirrors its Q4 2024 breakout, which led to its multi-year high of $0.484.

“The structure, duration, and magnitude of the current and previous pullbacks are very similar,” he wrote on X, with a nearly 60% decline from its local highs over 19 weeks.

Based on this, the analyst suggested that Dogecoin “might have completed its entire pullback and could propel itself to the next high” in the coming weeks.

DOGE Price Risks Another 50% Correction

Despite the bullish outlooks, market watcher TradingShot affirmed that DOGE is already deep into its new bear cycle and risks another 50%-70% pullback if selling pressure and market volatility continue.

Per the post, Dogecoin is currently supported only by the 350-day Moving Average (MA), which has been holding since the October 2025 flash crash. It noted that “the 1W MA350 in particular is of the utmost importance as it held as Support during both previous Bear Cycles.”

As the analysis explained, if this level breaks, the memecoin could enter the second phase of the bear cycle, which potentially targets the $0.060-0.035 zone:

This either bottoms on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of Doge’s historic Fib Channel Up at around $0.0600 or extends to a full -93.00% decline (as much as the previous two corrected by) around $0.03500.

TradingShot also highlighted that DOGE’s bottom could be in by Q4 2026, based on the Sine Waves. “According to this, the next bottom should be around October 2026. So whatever price Doge is trading at around that time, we turn again into long-term buyers,” it concluded.

As of this writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.125, a 1.4% decline on the weekly timeframe.