How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on January 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

[Ben Graham]

Analysis of Thursday's Trades:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued a weak downward correction on Thursday following a surge over the past couple of weeks. The macroeconomic background for the day was virtually nonexistent, and Donald Trump, for the first time in a long while, did not impose new tariffs, launch a military operation, or threaten anyone. As a result, market movements were relatively stable despite the Fed meeting the previous day. However, the Federal Reserve did not make any significant decisions or announce any future changes in monetary policy. Therefore, there was nothing for traders to react to. Nevertheless, within the next 24-48 hours, the US may conduct missile and airstrikes against Iran. Currently, there is a significant fleet of aircraft carriers near the shores of Iran, capable of launching up to 300 missiles at once. Likely, Washington will soon strike Tehran and other cities in response to Iran's refusal to finalize a nuclear deal, which requires Iran to surrender all nuclear weapons and cease further nuclear development. The calm in the market is clearly temporary.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, several good signals were formed on Thursday. The price bounced three times from the 1.1970-1.1980 area and ultimately reached the nearest target at 1.1908. The last two of the three signals could have been utilized by beginner traders. The bounce from the 1.1908 level was precise, allowing traders to open long positions. By the end of the day, the pair returned to the 1.1970-1.1980 area, from which it immediately bounced again.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, an upward trend continues to form. On Monday night, the price consolidated above the area of 1.1800-1.1830, above the range of 1.1400-1.1830, so the flat that lasted for seven months can be considered completed. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the US dollar, so we fully support further growth of the euro currency.

On Friday, beginner traders can open new long positions in case of a bounce from the level of 1.1908, with targets at 1.1970-1.1980 and 1.2044-1.2056. A price consolidation below 1.1908 will allow opening shorts with a target of 1.1830-1.1837.

On the 5-minute timeframe, key levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, Germany will publish a package of macroeconomic data, including unemployment levels, fourth-quarter GDP, and inflation. The Eurozone will release its fourth-quarter GDP report. In the US, the Producer Price Index will be announced. A restrained market reaction may follow these reports. Politics and geopolitics remain on the agenda.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when volatility is high, and a trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction, place a stop loss at breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com