Chart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

• Gold likely formed a medium-term blow-off top: After surging to a record high of US$5,602, Gold reversed sharply with a 12% drop, signalling that the recent bullish acceleration phase has been damaged and may have peaked.
• Pullback driven by positioning and hawkish expectations: The sell-off appears driven more by stop-outs of leveraged long positions below US$5,238, amplified by speculation over a hawkish Fed Chair nominee, rather than any hard fundamental shock.
• Short-term bias turns corrective unless US$5,240 is reclaimed: Gold is now in a short-term corrective decline within a broader uptrend, with downside risks toward US$4,888–4,550 unless prices regain and hold above US$5,240, which would reopen upside squeeze risk

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) eyeing $5,000 and beyond as bullish acceleration intact”, published on 23 January 2026.

Since the start of this week, Gold (XAU/USD) continued to extend its bullish acceleration and hit the intermediate resistance zone at US$5,049/5,149, as highlighted.

The precious yellow metal printed a fresh all-time high of US$5,602 on Thursday, 29 January, and then staged a swift 11.8% decline to an intraday low of US$4,941 on Friday, 30 January, at the time of writing.

The volatile movement seen in Gold (XAU/USD) in the past 24 hours has not been triggered by any concrete fundamental catalysts.

Media reports suggesting that former US Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh may be nominated as the next Fed Chair, an announcement expected later today by President Trump, have been cited as the catalyst behind the ongoing pullback in precious metals.

Walsh is widely viewed as hawkish, raising concerns over tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer interest rates, which have weighed on gold and broader precious metals prices.

Based on technical analysis and order flows, it seems like short-term speculative leveraged long positions got stopped when Gold (XAU/USD) crossed below a short-term pivotal support at US$5,238.

Overall, the short-term bullish acceleration phase for Gold has been damaged.

Let’s now look at the latest short-term technical elements to decipher the yellow metal’s potential trajectory for the next 1 to 3 days.

Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Corrective decline within a medium-term uptrend

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Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 30 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

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Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 30 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the US$5,240 short-term pivotal resistance on Gold (XAU/USD) to maintain the ongoing minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$4,888, US$4,757, and US$4,630/4,550 (see Fig. 1).

On the flip side, clearance and an hourly close above US$5,240 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards US$5,473 and a retest of the current all-time high area of US$5,600

Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias

• The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have formed an impending daily bearish “Evening Star” candlestick pattern, which suggests this week’s bullish acceleration has transformed into a potential medium-term “blow-off” top (see Fig. 2).
• There is still further room for the current price actions to stage a further retracement towards the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

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