Here’s Why Bitcoin Fall Below $80,000 Could Be A Deep Pit – Analyst

[Ben Graham]

In the past few hours, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000 amid another wave of liquidations as January comes to a rather volatile close. Analysts at Kobeissi note there have been three notable liquidation events in the past 12 hours, resulting in a combined loss of $1.3 billion.

Such developments, coupled with a very fearful market after last week’s price slump, have pushed Bitcoin below a key price level. According to the renowned market expert Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s behavior towards this $80,000 price zone holds significant consequences for the market trajectory.

Bitcoin Slips Under ETF Realized Price As Downside Risk Grows

In a recent X post, Burak Kesmeci outlines the technical and on-chain importance of the $80,000 price level to the Bitcoin market. Before Bitcoin’s recent breakdown below $80,000, the asset had twice retested this zone following the correction phase that began in early October 2025.

Each successful rebound from these retests reinforced $80,000 as a critical support level, with certain chart formations even hinting at potential trend reversal. This underscored the market’s technical sensitivity to this level before the recent loss. However, Kesmeci highlights an on-chain importance of the $80,000 price point in that it also functions as the cost basis of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Therefore, the recent price fall below $80,000 places a large cohort of institutional investors at risk of entering unrealized losses.

In January 2026 alone, the Bitcoin ETFs already witnessed massive levels of withdrawals, resulting in a total net outflow of $1.61 billion. However, these figures are likely to surge higher as sustained price decline below the ETF cost basis is expected to trigger a wide-scale, panic-driven redemption among investors.  In addition to its on-chain and technical importance, Kesmeci also notes that $80,000 presently functions as the True Market Mean.

What Next For Bitcoin? 

According to Burak Kesmeci, a bearish scenario would require a weekly close below the $80,000 support level. If confirmed, the analyst warns that bearish momentum could intensify, potentially driving Bitcoin lower toward $72,000, $68,000, and eventually $62,000 in sequence. This is because these levels align with notable volume profile clusters, representing potential areas where liquidity could accumulate, and the price may temporarily stabilize.

Conversely, in a bullish scenario, Kesmeci notes that a sustained rebound from current levels could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls. The first major upside hurdle lies at $90,000, followed by the 111-period Simple Moving Average (SMA111) near $95,000, which is described as a critical level for confirming a medium-term trend reversal.

A decisive break above the psychological $100,000 resistance would further strengthen the bullish case and signal a potential resumption of the broader uptrend. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,832, reflecting a 7.1% loss in the past day.