Stocks rebound to start February – US Index Outlook

Ben Graham · 2 horas atrás

Stock Markets find a basis to rebound after past end-of-week high volatility
US Indexes attempt another test of their record highs as positive data lifts sentiment
Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Markets are digesting the Friday announcement of Powell's replacement as the next Fed Chair, taking effect in May 2026. In case you missed it, Kevin Warsh will take his spot.

Discover: The Fed Chair has been picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?

The announcement brought a wave of high volatility, combined with record pace January month-end flows.

Metals were subject to a now-famous 6-sigma event (where volatility exceeds 99.9996% of previous observations), taking Silver back to $78 and Gold back below $5,000.

In parallel, the US Dollar spiked higher, reversing a large part of its end-January move lower as participants saw Warsh's nomination as a positive for the Greenback.

The 2006-2011 Governor was seen as a "hard money hawk", so his appointment was initially seen as negative for stocks and risk-assets, particularly given movements in Metals and Cryptocurrencies.

Seen as a reformist, the next Fed Chair will undoubtedly contribute to drastic changes in the way the central bank operates – the rest will be to know if it gets a positive response from investor sentiment.

Being appointed by Trump and remaining close to the current Administration, it would be surprising to see the opposite.

Propped higher by Iran tensions turning into discussions, a very positive surprise on the Manufacturing PMIs (52.6 vs 48.5 exp!) and month-beginning reallocations, US Benchmarks are heading to their recent highs in the morning session.

heatmap 0202 — Current picture for the Stock Market (11:29 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 2, 2026

Except for struggling big names like Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia or even Disney (-4.30%), the daily picture is broadly bullish. A good sign to start the new month.

Let's dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels

dhjia 0202 — Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The bullish impulse from this morning officially broke the downtrend from the past week, with the 4H looking strong after the lower wick at the Open.

Many factors are to be considered to trade Equities these days, between earnings (season now ending), geopolitical and political events colliding.

Still, the DJIA holds its rangebound picture near the all-time highs (48,400 to 49,700), sign of investor resilience despite the uncertainty.

Now testing the upper bound of its intraday resistance (49,350), bulls will want to close above the level for chances to break its record – The RSI and current candle point towards that direction but watch for a potential rejection.

Keep in mind that the trading range holding would imply selling flows around 49,600 to 49,700.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

Intraday Resistance 49,200 to 49,350 (testing)
49,400 morning highs
ATH Resistance From 49,600 to 49,700
All-time Highs 49,710
50,000 Potential Psychological Resistance

Support Levels

Christmas ATH Daily Mom. Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (4H MA 50 at 49,080)
Intraday Support 48,600 to 48,700
48,713 Session lows
Key Support around 47,500
45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels

nasdaq 0202 — Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq is now retesting its Friday highs, coming in at a key test around 25,800.

This level acted as a key resistance since October 2025 and held pressure on the Index so managing to hold above provides a cleaner setup for a bullish breakout.

For now, like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq remains in a wide range, hence when approaching key resistance and support levels, look for mean-reversion plays.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

Session Highs 25,824
Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (testing)
26,246 FOMC highs
All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300

Support Levels

Mini-support 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 pts
session lows 25,470
Wednesday lows 24,913
24,500 Main support
Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels

sp500 0202 — S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

As evidenced in our Friday analysis, the S&P 500 is outperforming its peers and is on pace to retest its all-time highs.

Still, the index will be restricted by similar macro factors as Nasdaq and the Dow.

In the meantime, it looks like bulls are pushing for a test of the 7,020 record which should be confirmed if the session closes above 7,000.

The next levels of interest are located around 7,080.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

Current ATH 7,020
All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020
Potential Breakout targets (Fibonacci-Extensions)
- 1.362 = 7,080
- 1.618 = 7,119

Support Levels

Key Pivot 6,945 to 6,975
Minor-Support 6,880 to 6,900
Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Greenland lows)
6,800 Psychological Support
6,789 Greenland lows
6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep an eye on sentiment on Monday!

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