Timid recovery in Metals – North American session Market wrap for February 2

Ben Graham · 1 hora atrás

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 2

Traders are still trying to grasp the significance of Friday’s historic move in the metals market after Kevin Warsh's nomination to be the next Fed Chair.

The price action was so extreme that it exceeded 99.9996% of typical volatility observations — a very rare 6-sigma event.

Silver retested the $71.30 lows (!) after gapping down at the weekly open, but rebounded sharply to close the session up around 2%, near $80.

Gold, meanwhile, wicked down to $4,400 and remained relatively calm throughout the session.

Metals are unlikely to snap back immediately, but they are showing notable resilience following such a massive shock.

Stocks, on the other hand, have recovered all of Friday’s losses, supported by the fastest growth in US manufacturing since 2022 and dip-buying following weekend risk deleveraging, as the probability of Iran-US talks increased in an effort to ease mounting pressure.

Diplomacy remains a possible path forward, but the odds of reaching a consensus to avoid a full-blown conflict appear low.

US demands — including reducing enriched uranium and scaling back ballistic missile programs — have been described as unacceptable by Iranian advisers.

Oil has also given back a large portion of its Friday gains and is now retesting its upward trendline around $62 — a familiar pattern when geopolitical risk premiums fail to hold.

Meanwhile, a partial US government shutdown began over the weekend, leading to the postponement of Friday’s NFP release. Further details will follow once the BLS announces an updated schedule.

Discover:

close heatmap 0202 — Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 2, 2026

Palantir just beat on its earnings by an enormous margin so expect movement there tomorrow!

For the rest, the picture is broadly green from the beat on the Manufacturing PMIs, great news that were very welcome for investors.

Keep a close eye on Volatility events this week, as this weekend didn't deliver any surprises but anxiety remains high.

Cross-Assets Daily Performance

daily perf 0202 — Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

As you can see, this weekend offered quite some volatile gaps lower across asset classes.

Still, most remained pretty resilient after today's action, particularly with Sentiment rebounding.

Trader can still expect a lot of volatility this week.

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

fx perf 0202 — Currency Performance, February 2, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs

The US Dollar also rebounded sharply in today's session, extending above the 50% retracement of its Greenland move lower.

For the rest of FX, the CHF has been getting hammered quite harshly in the past two session so keep an eye on whether this lasts or not. The Swiss currency is also affected by risk-appetite and can either jump up or down depending on the outcomes of the US-Iran talks.

AUD traders will be looking closely at tonight's RBA event – Get ready!

Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session

Tomorrow's session will focus heavily on traditional and energy sectors – Focus on Chevron, Exxon and Verizon, all releasing their earnings during the pre-Open.

A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions

calendar for 0302 — For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

All eyes are on the Royal Bank of Australia.

Today’s evening session is dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, where a 25 bps hike is heavily expected – Traders will also focus on Bullock's tone to spot if more are to come or not.

Any shift in tone around how restrictive policy really is or the balance of risks between inflation and growth could move rate expectations quickly, particularly at the front end of the Aussie curve.

With US Data not releasing due to the partial shutdown, traders will focus more on the weekly ADP report as the NFP won't come on time.

Safe Trades, keep a close eye on the Middle East!

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