Solana Price Forecast Turns Bearish After $100 Breakdown, Can Next Support Stop the Slide?

[Ben Graham]

The Solana price has entered the new month under pressure after losing a level that had acted as a psychological anchor for much of the past year. The token’s drop below $100 shifted market attention from recovery narratives to damage control.

Traders are now closely watching whether upcoming support levels can halt a decline that has accelerated amid overall weakness in the crypto market. Although network activity and institutional interest continue to draw attention, short-term price movements have clearly shifted into a bearish trend.

Solana Price Breaks $100 as Selling Pressure Builds

Before bouncing back to the current $102 level, the Solana price dipped to around $98, marking its lowest point in nearly ten months and extending losses to nearly 20% over the past week and approximately 25% over the last month.

Trading activity has thinned as prices fell, with spot volume and derivatives participation both declining. Data from CoinGlass shows falling open interest, suggesting long positions are being unwound rather than a surge in aggressive short selling.

The move has not occurred in isolation. A wave of market-wide liquidations over the weekend, combined with thin liquidity, amplified downside moves across major cryptocurrencies.

Macroeconomic concerns have also weighed on sentiment after renewed expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a choice viewed as hawkish by markets.

Technical Outlook Points to Lower Support Levels

From a technical perspective, Solana’s structure has weakened. The break below $100 confirmed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with the Solana price hovering well beneath its declining short-term moving averages.

Bollinger Bands are widening, and Solana price action remains near the lower band, suggesting downward momentum remains dominant rather than stabilizing.

Momentum indicators underline the pressure. The daily relative strength index is hovering near 25, placing SOL deep in oversold territory. While this increases the probability of short-term bounces, it does not, on its own, signal a trend reversal.

On the downside, traders are watching the $95 area closely, followed by a broader $92–90 zone. Below that, $85 and $80 stand out as larger historical support levels. Some on-chain and pattern analyses suggest that if selling accelerates, thinner support could expose deeper zones later in the year.

Fundamentals Remain Active Despite Weak Price Action

Despite the bearish price forecast, Solana’s underlying network metrics remain comparatively strong. January transaction counts rose sharply, and recent data shows continued growth in on-chain activity and stablecoin usage.

Institutional interest has been mixed but not absent, with earlier January inflows offset by more recent Solana ETF outflows.

Currently, the technical picture dominates. Solana would need to reclaim $110 and hold above key moving averages to ease bearish pressure. Until that happens, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective moves within a broader downtrend, leaving the next support levels as the market’s immediate test.

Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview