XAG/USD. Price Analysis. Forecast. Silver Holds Losses

[Ben Graham]

On Monday, silver continues to decline after Friday's crash. The white metal sharply fell after US President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, which the market interpreted as a sign of a more measured and restrained approach to monetary easing.

Traders activated profit-taking after a prolonged rally that had propelled silver to historical highs. Additionally, safe-haven metals, including silver, are losing demand amid a drop in geopolitical risks after US-Iran negotiations: Trump expressed hope over the weekend that an agreement can be reached with Iran, despite Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's warning of the risk of regional escalation should the US launch an attack.

At the same time, demand for silver as a refuge is waning under the influence of cautious rhetoric from the Fed. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that further rate cuts are premature, characterizing the current corridor of 3.50%–3.75% as neutral. This position was supported by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who called for patience and noted the need for somewhat restrictive policy.

Market sentiment has shifted toward risk following the Senate agreement on government funding, which eliminated the threat of a shutdown. Meanwhile, silver's price remains poised for a rebound amid growing concerns over the US national debt.

From a technical perspective, prices have shown resilience below the 50-day SMA, which is currently at 75.202. It is also worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into negative territory, indicating weakness among bulls. Therefore, a return to historical highs in the near future seems unlikely.

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