Copper price must double to meet future mining needs — study

[Redator]

To meet the world’s future needs, copper prices must at least double their current levels in order to incentivize companies to build more mines, a study published in the latest issue of the SEG Discovery journal suggests.

According to the study, led by researchers from the University of Michigan, Cornell University and the University of Queensland, the problem isn’t about finding enough copper in the ground, but the rate at which companies are mining to satiate the rapid consumption of metal driven by two major themes: economic development and clean energy.

These two drivers of demand are at odds when it comes to how resources are to be allocated, because, as the study reveals, the current rate of mining can barely keep up with the copper needs for one, let alone both.

Racing against the clock

Despite concerns about reserve depletion, the global copper industry is still sitting in the near-exponential growth stage of mine output between now and 2050. According to the study’s estimates, more copper will be mined over the next 32 years than all of previous history (905 versus 784 million tonnes).

Projection of past copper mine production and refinery output. Credit: SEG Discovery (2025)

Nevertheless, this projected production would fall short of the demand for copper from just typical economic and population growth, said Adam Simon, a professor from the University of Michigan and co-author of the study.

This “business-as-usual” model of copper consumption predicts that about 1.75 billion tonnes of copper must be mined by 2050 to support current expectations of global growth, such as new infrastructure for the developing world.

Development vs. decarbonization

However, the mission to mine enough copper would seem impossible once demands from electrification and elimination of fossil fuels are factored in toward the mid-century mark.

The study estimates that transitioning to an EV fleet and associated grid upgrades requires upwards of 1.25 billion tonnes of the metal. Deriving wind and solar power requires another 2.3 billion tonnes, while building a power grid that relies on batteries for energy storage would need a staggering 3 billion tonnes.

During the proposed energy transition period from 2018 until 2050, the world’s total copper demand is projected to rise 2.2% annually, rising from 24.4 million tonnes per year to 50 million tonnes, while mined copper output is expected to lag behind at 1.9% per year, from 20.4 million tonnes a year to 37.1 million tonnes.

By then, over half of the world’s total copper endowment would have been mined (3.6 billion tonnes of 6.6 billion). This full electrical transition, according to the study, requires mining twice as much copper as the “business-as-usual” case.

At the same time, planned development in countries like India and Africa will require more copper. India alone needs 227 million tonnes to build and modernize its infrastructure, while building infrastructure across all 54 countries in Africa will require about 1 billion tonnes.

Collectively, low- and middle-income countries will need over a billion tonnes of copper, the equivalent of half a century of current production, to achieve parity with the US in terms of infrastructure and human development.

Energy use by nation. Credit: SEG Discovery (2025)

Mining hurdles

To meet an increasing supply gap, global mine output must increase by 16.7 million tonnes a year over the next three decades, as calculated by models used in the study.

The sheer scale of expansion required is daunting. It would necessitate either the construction of 36 new large-scale mines, the commissioning of 759 small mines, or a five-fold increase in output from the world’s top 10 producing mines, the authors note.

Each of these scenarios presents major feasibility challenges, particularly given that new large mines typically take more than 20 years to come online, and many existing large mines are nearing closure, they added.

High costs

Adding to this complexity is the rising capital intensity of mine development that has kept mining companies on the sidelines.

Recent brownfield projects in Latin America indicate a capital intensity of over $23,000 per tonne of annual production, a sharp increase compared to historical averages, the study said, citing a previous study from 2024. This metric, widely used in the mining sector, strongly correlates with the market price needed to justify investment.

As a result, the authors conclude that copper prices will need to exceed at least $20,000 per tonne—more than double current levels—to spur enough investment in new mining capacity.

Without such a dramatic price increase, it will be nearly impossible to meet future copper needs, even under the most conservative demand scenarios, they stressed.

Pathways forward

In short, there is an unavoidable trade-off when it comes to managing the world’s copper resource: building wind and solar-heavy grids means diverting them from infrastructure and social development.

To strike the right balance, the study identifies some realistic pathways forward, including the shift to nuclear energy as a primary power source, employing methane-fueled backup plants to support renewables and promoting hybrid vehicles over fully electric ones.

Without such policies, the supply of copper will inevitably fall short, at least under current market conditions, it concludes.

The full study, including supplemental graphs and spreadsheets created by the authors, is here.