This analyst called the price Bitcoin breaks 4 months ago, but there's more

[Ben Graham]

Months ago, a prominent crypto analyst outlined a precise window where the Bitcoin price could enter a violent downside phase. At the time, the projection seemed extreme. Now, with price behavior beginning to align with that roadmap, the analyst has released a far more expansive update — one that not only reinforces the crash call but also maps what comes before and after the next major pivot.

Bitcoin Price Multi-Cycle Model Signals A Structural Reset

In the update shared on X, the analyst integrates yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles to define both the potential magnitude of decline and the timing of the next pivot. On the yearly timeframe, Bitcoin sits in what he labels an extreme risk zone ahead of a projected pivot around February 2. The structure is left-translated with distributive price action — a formation linked to late-cycle weakness.

He compares the current setup to a previous harmonic phase where Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its all-time high before reaching the same pivot window. That decline produced a rebound of about 40% but failed to reach a new all-time high, suggesting the February pivot may bring relief rather than expansion. He also identifies a macro risk window from April to September 2026.

On the monthly cycle, the analyst marks a decisive pivot around December 22. Historical drawdowns in similar harmonics were 56%, 77%, and 34%, depending on the cycle context. The 77% drop occurred during a bear market, while the 34% retracement formed a mid-bull cycle. Upside rebounds ranged between 140% and 375%, with a later 158% expansion, showing that monthly harmonics often host the sharpest price dislocations.

On the weekly timeframe, a nearer-term pivot appears around November 19. Past pullbacks ranged from 20% to 34%, followed by upside expansions of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127%, and 69%, providing the tactical signals traders may rely on for short-term adjustments within the broader trend.

What’s More: Refined Crash Targets And The Bottom Window

Beyond confirming the original crash call, the analyst refines the downside roadmap by synchronizing all three cycles. When harmonics align, volatility and pivot significance increase. While the full drawdown ranges 20%–77%, he narrows the likely decline to 34%–55% from the all-time high, noting deeper bear-market conditions are not yet confirmed.

The November weekly pivot appears too early for a macro bottom, with higher-timeframe pressure likely pushing the true pivot into January. A late-November dead-cat bounce is possible before further downside. Key levels: $90,000 (~30% drop) for November, $72,000 (~43% below the high) for January, with further support at $45,000 and $28,000 if selling intensifies.

The analyst remains cautious, noting the last comparable yearly harmonic rallied 40% without surpassing the all-time high, with similar limits expected before the May–September 2026 risk window. However, while his four-month-old crash call held, he believes Bitcoin’s path is far from over—investors should prepare for further downside and a multi-stage recovery shaping the next macro cycle.