Bitcoin Price Slips 40%: Why Analysts Doubt an 80% Crash

Ben Graham · February 4

Bitcoin price is getting destroyed, extending losses, and testing investor patience (like mine). BTC Price slid about 40% from its October peak, shaking investors. The pullback included an 11% drop in a single week as global markets turned risk-off. That price action reopened a scary question: are we heading for another four-year cycle wipeout?

Research firm K33 says the fear makes sense, but the outcome does not. In a new report, its analysts argue today’s setup looks rough on the surface yet lacks the ingredients that fueled past 80% collapses.

This debate matters because cycle panic often pushes beginners to sell at the worst time. Understanding what is actually different helps you avoid emotional decisions.

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What Is the “Four-Year Cycle,” and Why Does It Spook Investors?

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle stems from the Bitcoin halving, an event that halves the new coin supply roughly every 4 years. In the past, prices surged after a halving, then crashed 70%–85% once hype faded.

Think of it like a boom-and-bust housing market. Easy money pours in, prices spike, then overextended buyers rush for the exits.

(Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin’s recent slide is triggering those memories, especially after strong gains earlier in the year. Many readers searching for why Bitcoin is falling are really asking one thing: “Is this the big crash?”

Why K33 Says an 80% Bitcoin Crash Looks Unlikely

K33’s core argument is simple. The last two brutal bear markets had forced sellers.

In 2022, failures like Luna, FTX, and large crypto lenders triggered margin calls. Assets dumped fast. Today, those pressure points are missing.

There is also a new buyer class. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now channel billions of dollars from pensions and advisors into Bitcoin. These investors act more like long-term savers than day traders, which can soften deep sell-offs.

$BTC ETF INFLOWS: $561,000,000 YESTERDAY

BLACKROCK BOUGHT $142,000,000 WORTH OF BITCOIN pic.twitter.com/jOCDleGr4P

— Crypto Jargon (@Crypto_Jargon) February 3, 2026

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Interest rates also matter. Easing rates reduces the stress that previously crushed leveraged players.

Where Bitcoin Could Find Its Footing, or Slip Further

K33 points to $74,000 as a key support level. A break below it may drag price toward the 2021 peak near $69,000, or even the long-term average near $58,000.

(Source: BTCUSD / TradingView)

That sounds scary, but context helps. Bitcoin has already flushed out $1.8 billion in leveraged long positions in just a few days. That kind of cleanup often appears near turning points.

Heavy trading volume and negative funding rates show traders have already rushed for the exits. Historically, those conditions tend to show up near bottoms, even if the timing stays messy.

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