Why Dogecoin (DOGE) cannot break $0.10 Although short-term Bounce and neutral RSI

[Ben Graham]

Dogecoin (DOGE) has shown signs of life recently, rebounding from lows near $0.08 to trade near the $0.093–$0.097 range. That short-term bounce has attracted attention, but the cryptocurrency still struggles to push past the $0.10 threshold.

Despite renewed buying interest and neutral momentum readings, multiple technical and market factors continue to hold DOGE below this psychologically important level.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action and Technical Roadblocks

Over the past week, DOGE has cleared minor resistance levels at $0.085 and $0.090, signaling a recovery from recent lows. However, the rebound has stalled just under $0.10, with sellers stepping in as the price approached that area.

Technical charts show a declining channel forming on the hourly timeframe, with resistance at roughly $0.0985 and the 100-hour simple moving average acting as a barrier on the upside.

Indicators such as the MACD have weakened in the bullish zone, and the RSI has slipped below neutral 50, signaling fading upside momentum rather than a clear breakout setup.

According to market analysis, a push above roughly $0.1020 would be needed to open the path toward higher targets near $0.1085 and $0.1120, but that level has so far remained out of reach.

If DOGE fails again at $0.10, downside support is seen near $0.0924 and $0.090, with a deeper break possibly dragging the price back toward the $0.080 area.

Market Structure and Whale Activity

Large transfers of DOGE to exchanges like Robinhood have coincided with recent price reactions. In early February, two substantial movements, one of about 203.6 million DOGE and another of roughly 278 million DOGE, were spotted, drawing attention from traders watching whale behavior.

While such deposits can indicate potential sell pressure, their timing with short-term rebounds suggests repositioning rather than straightforward distribution. Liquidity metrics also point to thinner market depth compared with earlier months, meaning that large orders can have outsized effects on price swings.

Lower liquidity makes it harder for DOGE to sustain moves above resistance, especially around key levels like $0.10.

Fundamental Backdrop and Broader Crypto Conditions

Current DOGE market data shows the token trading with a market capitalization of over $15.8 billion and a circulating supply of around 168.6 billion. Its all-time high remains far above current prices, showing how much further it has to climb to reclaim past levels.

Broader crypto market conditions have been mixed, with risk-off sentiment, volatility in derivatives markets, and fluctuations in larger assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum influencing meme coin dynamics.

Recent rebounds appear driven mainly by technical oversold conditions and short-term demand rather than fresh catalysts or a sustained shift in fundamentals.

While DOGE’s recent bounce and neutral RSI offer some breathing room, the combination of persistent resistance near $0.10, weak upside momentum, large exchange inflows, and reduced liquidity continues to limit its ability to break higher in the near term.

Cover image from ChatGPT, DOGEUSD chart from Tradingview